MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. I bought 100 $200 calls around high $1s-low $2s, the dump was BS! Now they are $4 and we are at $195!
     
    #111     Oct 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    sigh, you just don't understand even as I said it many ways

    mstr does not care about share dilution, they will print a billion shares if they have to if it means getting 1 million bitcoin or even 500k bitcoin

    and the market says go for it, that's why we buy your shares, that's why we buy your debt, we want mstr to acquire as much bitcoin as possible, FUCKING GO FOR IT, Mr Saylor!

    mstr shares are unlimited, bitcoin is not

    since you're not a bitcoiner, you would not understand, and...


    upload_2024-10-9_23-19-22.png
     
    #112     Oct 9, 2024
  3. I was looking at the OCT11 200 calls for 3.80, but if price hits 204 I only profit 1k...not worth the risk for that payoff. That's what I said, calls are too expensive now...get ready for a rug pull imo.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2024
    #113     Oct 9, 2024

  4. I know I did the exact same strategy years ago and it worked out great...but if bitcoin doesn't play ball it doesn't work lol...you just end up losing equity whether via bitcoin, cash, or passing it on to the shareholders via an offering which in turn will cause dilution. The markets not going to go for it if you start taking their shares away. :)

    I don't understand it???lol They are using MY playbook! Are you sure you understand it?? :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2024
    #114     Oct 9, 2024
  5. $4.40 now. It’s going to $200.00 imho.
     
    #115     Oct 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  6. Yeah big whoop...if you bought now @ 4.40, and price goes to 200 by OCT11, then you would lose
    -$1,969.01 unless IV spikes huge. If it goes to 200 tomorrow you would lose -$310.77. The max target my spreadsheet has remaining for today is 201.14 so that would pnl you $1983...so its now or never but too late imo...I might have considered it this morning @ 3.83
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2024
    #116     Oct 9, 2024
  7. I took my basis off plus a fair profit, stop out is pure gain.
     
    #117     Oct 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  8. I bought over 100 $1.7s-$2.30, sorry you’re bummed.


    $5.10? Done chatting.
     
    #118     Oct 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  9. ???
    Bummed about getting it exactly right??? Anyway I was agreeing with you that you got in at the right time, and now would be too late! I literally provided the math to support it.


    You guys really are challenged when it comes to reading comprehension lol...I mean jonarb doesn't even know what he is thumbs upping.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2024
    #119     Oct 9, 2024
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Dude, either trade or don't, but you keep lecturing about price settlement when there is no more theta, yea we get it, and that's why you're too much of a coward to buy the calls 3 days before expiration

    I already told you buy July 2025 calls, grow some balls, or don't stay a pussy

    I already made over $750k profits this year trading mstr call options and I've already said many times I will make $1M profits on my current mstr call leaps position while you're still talking about 1SD at expiration bullshit, when most options traders don't hold til expiration, they speculate on price moves before expiration

    oh, you didn't understand that's what Mr T was doing? you got some free education, you're welcome
     
    #120     Oct 9, 2024
    jbusse and NoahA like this.
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