**** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, ONLY FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY **** mstr is only getting started, if you look at the start of this thread, 10-20 shares (now 100-200 shares due to the 10 to 1 split recently) would be worth $500k to $2M or more before 2030 everything depends on bitcoin price, though, so mstr ngu will go extreme when this bull market gets started As an aside, us gov was selling silk road bitcoin, the reason bitcoin stopped going up yesterday and went down. price suppression, I bet blackr0ck was buying the dip I'm very sorry, Noah! To be honest, I did not expect or foresee what's going on with mstr, currently (multiples on NAV/book value) As you know, I've been playing mstr call options since 2021 mstr is my leveraged play on bitcoin and then I buy options so I get even more leveraged, more bang for my buck$ mstr is the easiest play for me on the bitcoin stock market, they borrow to buy bitcoin, they sell shares to buy bitcoin, their income from business operations they buy bitcoin, what could be more simple? I know for sure I would not buy bitcoin miners, did mining in the past, fucking cut throat business plus the difficulty keeps going higher, more capital intensive as expanding operations and upgrades of hardware, plus costs of electricity, well you get the idea When the bitcoin spot etf's came out, i got a few comments on my crypto macro thread that it could kill mstr as it's a more pure play on bitcoin exposure, but i did not like how the etf's charge fees so this is again part of the mstr bitcoin simplicity play. Against miners with their complex operational costs and intensive capex , I compared mstr as farming bitcoin on a thread post on mstr is it time to get out mstr is farming bitcoin as opposed to mining bitcoin mstr is using tradfi capital markets to farm bitcoin, unlimited supply of resources, no difficulty adjustment, no hardware upgrades, no electricity costs spot etf's has no leverage, they cannot borrow and buy more bitcoin, they don't have operating income from their business software intelligence and use it to buy bitcoin, they are just 1 to 1, people buy $100 ibit and blackrock buys $100 bitcoin and blackrock charges a fee mstr is the simple and easy choice for me against bito, bitx and others, i cannot comment, i don't know what those things are and i'm too lazy and too low an IQ to figure out how they do their bitcoin What's happening now, and it's probably just cope or whatever to try to explain this massive outperformance of mstr against even bitcoin is a multiple on NAV I didn't know anything about it, just recently keep seeing it, but tl;dr it's a bonus for mstr. will it last? i don't know. will it expand? yes, i think it will assets minus liabilities = owner's equity or something like that, i took a basic accounting class in college, i think i got a C, barely passed, no joke, i hated that class Anyway, remember the hedge fund Kerrisdale, was shorting mstr, buying 2x bitcoin, they were saying mstr book value is too high compared to their bitcoin holdings? they might go bankrupt soon or give up their short mstr is more than 3x the NAV, now it could go to 10 mNAV or like apple 30 mNAV, but I think the real reason mstr is doing better than everything else including bitcoin is because high demand from UK where they do not have spot etf's and also central banks like swiss national bank buying mstr instead of bitcoin, easier to put on their balance sheet plus now these leveraged mstr mstu mstx msty, everyone wants mstr but everything still comes down to bitcoin price going up, soon, within 2 weeks we should get the bitcoin bull market mania i hope anyway...
No worries and of course I'm only joking. I remember following Mike Alfred on X quite a while back now, and he kept pumping the miners, but something just didn't sit right with me about him, so I stopped listening to him. The miners have for sure had impressive runs, and if they ever get back to their ATH's, it would be quite the run, but I think you're correct with all of your reasons. Some have a very good bitcoin treasury, so they can perhaps be evaluated just based on that, but you're right, its a tough business and the chance of them going to zero is very real. Imagine buying a miner as a proxy for bitcoin and losing all your money while bitcoin continues to climb! This is absolutely key. The idea that you can use debt to attain more bitcoin, and that debt will be depreciated away, is simply genius. That is my worry as well. The multiple can easily grow, but at the same time, its possible that bitcoin can also outperform MSTR as well, now that its multiples higher, so its a tough call. I remember when GBTC had the discount to BTC, and I could understand because there were rumors about the actual holdings and all that jazz. So I figure it made sense that it should be prices lower since there was a risk of missing bitcoin, at least theoretically. Even with the ETFs, the risk is techincally there vs. your own cold storage. I guess many more people will lose bitcoin before these ETFs lose bitcoin, but I worry ever so slightly about Coinbase to be honest. I like that some of the ETFs doing all use the same custodian. Just learned about it from that video you posted from the channel that only talks about MSTR!! LOL I hope as well. This is my first cycle, so I have nothing else to compare to, but I do think in some ways, we are a bit behind. Now the US is getting ready to sell even more coins, and it seems like something just doesn't add up given the huge ETF interest, and yet not much action. I would never want to not always have exposure because I do believe that omega candle will come, but I am also trying to keep an open mind and see the lack of a new high for over 6 months. Maybe we are waiting for election results, or maybe we need the government or Fed to make their move first by pumping in liquidity, but it just doesn't seem too easy right now. I'm waiting for a move to 70k to exit the entire BITX position and convert to either IBIT, or I might pick up some MSTR, and this way, I at least won't have that decay problem with the leveraged ETF.
Actually, it's even better than that. As the price of mstr goes higher, the debt gets auto-converted to mstr shares, so debt goes away, poof, bye bye, see you later I think around $350/share, all of the debt gets paid off by shares except one This is the best thing I learned recently, mstr is going to acquire scarce asset bitcoin using unlimited mstr shares One got activated yesterday so mstr needs to stay above $186.22 ...
The buying from $160 John, I have had MSTR on my LL2, TS, and all charts since its drop to $120s. The ferocious institutional buying over the last several weeks indicates your premise. I like seeing someone sit on the bid taking 200k to 1,000,000 shares over and over. It indicates to me we are heading up to a new high. The 1.75x plus MSTR bull ETFs are the raging talk on many Asian chats and those traders have lots of buying power.
ok but mstr can only increase if bitcoin increases as the gist I got is they are buying bitcoin at current prices via margin and paying off the debt with the bitcoin gains correct? I did the same on nexo years ago, borrowing money using bitcoin as collateral, and then buying more bitcoin with the borrowed money, and using that bitcoin as collateral to borrow more money to buy more bitcoin etc...etc....etc....(2008) Lambo Anyway, so if there is a frenzy of buying MSTR pushing its price up, and bitcoin does not increase or even decreases then it will basically be the equivalent of a pump and dump wouldn't it when the debt piles up? I imagine the debt or interest can be paid in bitcoin, so they will just lose bitcoin equity not cash.
Thank you very much, Mr T, I don't have access to Level 2 as I'm not an active trader, just 1-2 options trade per year The 13F filings showed the central banks and other institutional investors piling in on mstr There's a new leveraged mstr etf mstu it's 2x and already has good volume
No, mstr pays the debt off through converted shares if the share price gets high enough, convertible notes are like call options If the mstr share price is not high enough (yet), they pay interest (only?) using the operating income from their business intelligence and lastly, they may issue to sell shares to retire some of the debt and leftover money to buy more bitcoin mstr has not sold a single bitcoin, they have only bought bitcoin
Yeah so basically the same idea...if bitcoin doesn't rally then MSTR will not be able to sustain a rally, especially if they issue shares.
Just pointing out that mstr does not sell bitcoin to pay off debt as you were saying Yes, we need bitcoin to go up, mstr share price can go higher through higher multiples of NAV, but the best is for bitcoin price to go up bitcoin will be over $100k before eoy 2024 which I estimate will result in mstr share price to be at least $666/share
I was just saying its an option, because if you don't have the cash then its easy to just take it off the borrowed btc. If MSTR releases shares, and then turns around and pays off its debt, and maybe buy more bitcoin with the cash generated, it could turn out pretty good...but in an ftx scenario watch out because you will suffer dilution as well as price tanking as they could continue to release shares to pay for the debt...or as mentioned they could sell off bitcoin to avoid this...however if bitcoin accumulation is their driving force more than software, then this too will cause a drop. I know because I played this game Futhermore, bitcoin could also be low 50k's by the eoy.