I’m no longer spending much time with this journal anymore because, at this point, there aren’t a lot of insights (if any) coming to light with respect to my system. It’s already verified its reliability and accuracy in my eyes, so now I just use it. However, from time to time, in reviewing past setups in the context of what I’ve learned since I created them, I rediscover some aspect of a previous chart that I wish to include in those I’m using presently. I stopped looking at daily charts months ago because they have little relevance when it comes to my style of intraday trading. The same is pretty much true of hourly charts as well. But in taking another look at them and contrasting them with some of the ideas I’ve formulated in the meantime, I was struck by the potential of using four-hour charts to monitor the weekly trend, which would provide a useful context in which to interpret the day-to-day trend I include on most all my charts today (i.e., each of the time frames I monitor regularly). Consequently, at least for this week, I want to once again render my forecasts in writing so I can go back and check to see whether implementing the use of four-hour charts in the way I’m envisioning is truly beneficial, or merely a notion I had that seemed promising, but that did not pan out under real-world conditions. (I will record my forecasts tomorrow barring any unforeseen developments.)
You sound like a candidate for graduation to futures trading, if $50,000 in cash is what you have on hand.
This is a “hypothetical performance” account. I will go back to trading my $100 OANDA live Forex trading account as soon as I replenish my balance, after having withdrawn the money in order not to leave anyone out during the gift giving at Christmas.
AUDJPY: The weekly trend has been bullish ever since December 1st of last year. The last time there was an ideal setup for entering a long position was on January 3rd, when the daily trend rejoined the weekly trend after a temporary pullback/consolidation. AUDUSD: A bullish weekly trend and moderate climb in the daily trend equaled a number of opportunities to enter profitable trades last week every time price dropped below the daily trend line. CADJPY: This bullish pair offered me a profit on Friday from entering a successful short position when it hit statistical resistance in the form of the top of the maximum weekly price range. It now has room to continue a northbound trajectory, but also has plenty of room to continue falling. CHFJPY: This bullish pair also has plenty of room to rise AND plenty of room to fall. EURAUD: The weekly trend has been bearish ever since December 11th of last year. The daily trend rejoined the pair’s downward progress on January 3rd. EURUSD: At 1.2030, the structure of this pair suggests that buying at this level offers significant reasons to hope for a successful trade. EURJPY: At 136.00, this pullback in the daily uptrend might turn out to be a decent opportunity to enter a long position. (The pair has been headed north for the past three weeks.) EURGBP: The weekly trend has been northbound for three weeks, but the daily trend lacks momentum then keeps slipping back into or near bearish territory. In fact, for the last 2½ weeks, the pair has been relatively range bound. GBPJPY: The weekly trend bounced off minor resistance on Friday and has plenty of room to continue falling, but the fact of the matter is that both the daily and weekly trends are presently extremely bullish. GBPUSD: The daily trend rejoined the bullish weekly trend approximately 12 to 24 hours before Friday’s close. NZDJPY: This pair has been literally pushing the envelope (up against the top of the daily price range) for the last 24 hours, and finally pulled back a little during the last 4 hours of trading last week. NZDUSD: This pair is in essentially the same situation as NZDJPY. USDCAD: This extremely bearish pair gave me the opportunity to profit from a long position on Friday when it dropped below statistical support in the form of the bottom of the daily price range. At 1.2414, it now has room both to continue rising or to resume its southbound trajectory. USDCHF: At 0.9745, the daily trend looks like it is trying to rejoin the bearish weekly trend. USDJPY: This pair has been range bound for four or five weeks. As a result, the weekly trend line is essentially useless—much too lagging to paint an accurate picture of what is going on with price. If the daily trend is going to continue cycling up and down, the next move to make would seem to be entering a short position as soon as price drops back below the daily trend line. (All future forecasts will appear under my "South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West" journal/thread ONLY.)
I suffered a series of heavy losses due to not using my own system correctly! I obtained dramatically different results once I made a simple mid-course correction, so I’m hoping to use this “lesson learned” to finish the last five days of my trial period strong...
Based on today’s P/L it should be theoretically possible for me to realize a 4% gain in a single day if I avoid putting together a string of bonehead moves like I did last night (which I ought to be able to accomplish relatively easily by simply using my strategy correctly) so that will be my goal for tomorrow.
The five or six reversals in direction and long shadows observed on the 60-minute USDCAD candlestick chart below pretty much sums up my general impression of the Forex market over the last 18 or so hours. Frankly, I couldn’t deal with it, and the idea I had for possibly mastering all this hectic activity made things even worse. I was so close to getting back to break even…but now it will be a “miracle” if I somehow managed to pull that off over the next two days.