Ms. Mae’s Trade Strategy

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Dec 3, 2017.

  1. 777


    I got you do not want real discussion or risk answering key questions.

    From what I have read so far I would bet against your being profitable 12 months from now. You sound too far behind the learning curve, to my ear.

    However, of course I can not know this for sure and I wish you the best.
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
    #21     Dec 4, 2017
  2. d08


    Simple, mean reversion, large but rare losses. Everything I do now is like 55-65% win rate.
    #22     Dec 4, 2017
    henry76, Xela and MoneyMatthew like this.
  3. eurusdzn


    I think you should check your initial hypothesis. You may have it backwards.
    What I mean is that your entry signal should be momentum ignition when price begins to seperate from these multiple MA's.
    You are viewing the end of momentum as a fading opportunity to enter a trade.
    End of momentum, when price and lagging MA's converge , does not mean that price is not still
    drifting or continuing in the same direction. Possibly you are anticipating(wrong thread) a change in price direction but if you are reacting to price(wrong thread again) you may want to wait for price to ignite and diverge from MA's in the direction of your entry.

    It is true that different stocks , assets, having differing volatility characteristics that do end momentum at similar extremes (sucha s 5% consistent divergence in one vs 10% in another) .
    But I think its a stretch to view therse as support and resistance areas.
    Just my opinion but I have looked at this concept.
    #23     Dec 4, 2017
    Xela likes this.
  4. expiated


    That was an unpleasantly long amount of time to have to wait to exit my positions, besides which I got my times mixed up. I’ve made a slight adjustment to one of my key settings/parameters in an effort to avoid duplicating the premature entries I made with respect to AUDJPY and NZDJPY hours earlier.

    (I did not allow myself to be stopped out of these two positions because everything about my system was telling me that the exchange rates were due to reverse to the north at any moment.)


    I somehow got it in my head that Acting Governor Grant Spencer was speaking at 00:30 instead of at 00:15, so when I turned on my laptop at approximately 00:25, NZDJPY had already reacted. Fortunately, I’d left enough room so that I wasn’t stopped out, and “price” had not quite reached my take-profit target, so I adjusted it to manage a 13-pip gain.

    By that time, 00:30 had already rolled around, and the economic data out of Australia, which I had confused myself into thinking was going to be released later on, was already playing around with price action, so I locked in 5-pips profit while I had the chance and was happy to have avoided being stopped out for a loss simply because I entered the positions five hours too early.
    #24     Dec 4, 2017
  5. expiated


    I don’t back test because my system relies on an ongoing analyses of the relationships between key moving averages and their corresponding envelopes, horizontal support and resistance levels, average price ranges, and reoccurring price patterns—relationships too subtle and nuanced for me to write hard and fast rules as opposed to acting on a set of guidelines and principles. Moreover, I have to manage my trades given that these factors are dynamic, requiring me to make adjustments as the relationships between these elements change, something I cannot incorporate into a back test.
    #25     Dec 4, 2017
  6. expiated


    I was able to pick up about 13-pips from NZDJPY on the way up. Theoretically, I should be able to pick up at least about another 10 pips from NZDUSD on the way back down, even though this does constitute trading against what I perceive to be the overall prevailing trend.


    Long EURAUD

    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
    #26     Dec 4, 2017
  7. expiated



    This trade will compare what happens after entering a long position as suggested by the key settings/parameters that were slightly adjusted in an effort to avoid duplicating the premature entries I made with respect to AUDJPY and NZDJPY many hours ago, with entering a long position according to the original settings, which led to my being stopped out of EURAUD earlier.
    #27     Dec 5, 2017
  8. Who is Ms Mae?

    Those who successful in trading wouldn't tell you how to select currencies which has high probability of success and when to enter.
    Notice that these are the two very important things forex writers are unable to write.
    #28     Dec 5, 2017
  9. expiated


    There is a sense in which the decision-making process based on the slightly adjusted settings was an improvement. But there was another sense in which the decision to go long EURAUD was highly questionable to begin with.

    From that perspective, the types of trades that would be more justifiable include such options as shorting GBPUSD from 1.3447...


    ...going long CADJPY from 88.80...


    ...or shorting USDCAD from 1.2691:

    #29     Dec 5, 2017
  10. expiated


    I’m quite sure that what you have explained above is more sophisticated than my mind is able to grasp. Nonetheless, I don’t think it is descriptive of what I’m actually up to. For instance, in the example below, I would enter a short position as soon as I confirmed (or verified) that the short-term trend had genuinely turned south from about 1.2690, not because of any moving average, but rather, because I would interpret this situation as a pullback in an overall bearish day-to-day trend (represented by the long red diagonal line)--a pullback which has reached the upper level of the typical day range (as represented by the parallel red lines) which is also a pullback in the intraday trend.

    #30     Dec 5, 2017