Ms. Mae’s Trade Strategy

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Dec 3, 2017.

  1. expiated


    Reaching breakeven is, once again, back within the realm of possibility! The idea I had for mastering days in which price action is especially hectic did an amazingly good job of teaching me what NOT to do, and on top of that, it turns out that putting myself in such a deep hole yesterday was actually a blessing in disguise.

    By maneuvering my butt into a corner with my back up against the wall, I was suddenly placed in a position that forced me to figure out how to milk the absolute maximum performance out of my system to totally optimize my results.

    ScreenHunter_6940 Jan. 11 07.57.jpg

    Though I admit that what I’m doing here amounts to little more than fooling around, the subtle nuances I have learned in the process to help shepherd me from being an apprentice of my system to a seasoned master is almost certain to prove beneficial when I go back to trading (seriously) my live account in a month or so.
    #91     Jan 11, 2018
  2. expiated


    The short position I still had opened when I left the house to run errands yesterday “should” have put me at breakeven. But whereas all the other euro pairs (EURAUD, EURGBP and EURJPY) fell considerably after reaching their zeniths, EURUSD only dropped to within a single pip of my take-profit target, and then floated away, never to return again!!!

    Had I been home, I would’ve locked in my roughly $600 of profit right then and there, but by the time I got back, EURUSD was vacillating between a positive and negative 100 to 200 dollars worth of P/L.

    When I finally decided to go ahead and accept a measly $100 gain, the rate STOPPED dropping, and then when the Asian market opened to begin the next round of sessions, EURUSD rose to a NEW high (unlike all the other euro pairs) stopping me out at yet another VERY significant loss.

    So, having FAILED to even reach my secondary goal (or more like my tertiary goal), this morning I concentrated on reconfiguring my charts (see below) in accordance with the nuanced adjustments I made to my approach...

    ScreenHunter_6942 Jan. 12 11.43.jpg

    I was able to make six “serious” trades after that, at which point the market was relatively dead, so that will conclude my trading for the week.

    ScreenHunter_6944 Jan. 12 12.31.jpg

    The risk-to-reward ratio was essentially one-to-one, which ain’t all that bad for me personally, and which I’m perfectly happy to accept if my winning percentage remains above 80%.

    As for Collective2, I don’t like their platform. It’s too sluggish for me, it actually failed to execute one of my trades when I clicked on the trade button (the “busy” indicator simply continued spinning around and around forever), and it would repeatedly log me out of the website for no reason at all—one time when I was right in the middle of filling out a trade order.
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2018
    #92     Jan 12, 2018
  3. expiated


    More better...

    #93     Jan 12, 2018
  4. expiated


    Even more better?

    ScreenHunter_6945 Jan. 13 00.24.jpg
    #94     Jan 13, 2018
  5. expiated


    As it turns out, the main chart I'm actually trading with looks like this:

    ScreenHunter_7006 Jan. 18 00.59.jpg

    ScreenHunter_7004 Jan. 18 00.42.jpg
    #95     Jan 18, 2018
  6. expiated


    I just contacted an entrepreneur who partners with traders who have successful strategies with proven track records to find out what is the minimum length of time he regards as sufficient to attest to a system’s success (which turned out to be six months).

    I suspect that over the last week or so I have finally figured out how to execute my system in such a manner that I can at long last realize a consistent minimum 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio while still maintaining my ideal 85%+ success rate (thanks to expanding my use of 60-, 15-, 5- and 1-minute chart measurements to include a weekly perspective as well, also using a 60-minute chart).

    Getting a weekly perspective from a 60-minute chart:
    1-Hour Chart.png

    If this turns out to actually work, I’ll contact the guy again at the end of July to find out what type of joint ventures he engages in with his partners.
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
    #96     Jan 23, 2018
  7. expiated


    The changes have forced me back to executing only a handful or two of trades per day (as I was doing previously), but the difference is that my minimum trade was about 7 pips, with one trade returning more like 20 pips and my best trade reaping about 44—four to eight times the size of my typical trades with the style I was using between 2015 to 2017.

    ScreenHunter_7018 Jan. 24 08.58.jpg
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2018
    #97     Jan 24, 2018
  8. expiated


    ScreenHunter_7020 Jan. 24 14.25.jpg
    #98     Jan 24, 2018
  9. expiated


    All of these trades, with the exception of the initial losing trade, were executed with the aid of a single proprietary indicator designed to increase the number of trade opportunities I can identify without reducing the number of pips profit per my typical/average trade (given that my reconfigured setup yielded only twelve trades total during the previous 24-hour cycle).

    ScreenHunter_7025 Jan. 25 00.13.jpg

    The indicator seems to work pretty well all by itself. Nonetheless, my plan is to see what happens when I plot it on the reconfigured charts for the New York session.

    My initial loss (trade #4) was unavoidable, but perhaps twice the size it should’ve been in that I chose a stop loss that allowed for more “wiggle room” than was probably prudent.

    However, the second losing trade didn’t have to happen had I chosen a stop loss that was just a tad bit “roomier,” which would have given me a 93% success rate, meeting my daily expectation of 90% plus. Hopefully I’ll gradually hone in on the “perfect” sweet spot regarding where to best place my stops using this modified system.

    Since I’ve already made 14 trades with the New York session still left to go, I suspect that combining the “old” proprietary indicator just mentioned with my nuanced, optimized setup based on the fooling around I did via Collective2 will give me both the frequency and size of trades I’m looking for without compromising my success rate to any serious extent.
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2018
    #99     Jan 25, 2018
  10. expiated


    The last eight trades represented below were made using his setup:


    The first three (losing) trades were made during a relatively dead stretch of time to test some potential theories, which proved to be bogus, but pointed me in the right direction.

    ScreenHunter_7030 Jan. 25 23.47.jpg

    After modifying my charts as pictured above, the next eight trades were all successful and confirmed what might turn out to be the last subtle adjustments to a pretty well-established system at this point, which if true, means there is once again little reason for me to continue posting any additional entries here on any kind of a regular basis.
    #100     Jan 26, 2018