Mr. Market

Discussion in 'Journals' started by jackstone54, Mar 29, 2008.

  1. The purpose of this journal is to simply post up a few charts with some market commentary.

    I trade options using a conservative strategy (long dated in the money calls/puts). Usually IWM, SPY and other index based etfs where I see a high probability trade.

    Im only going to post on the weekends and not going to post trades. Its too time consuming and I have nothing to prove. Just want to create a record of different charts and see where I went right or wrong as time passes.

    I use weekly charts with bollinger bands and keltner channels. My strategy is to trade with the trend and the bands/channels assist me in determining which way the trend is going.

    So let me start with my first post. I went through about 75-100 different etf and index charts today. There were only a few charts that appeared to be bullish that relate to commodities. A few charts that appeared may have a bottom. The bulk of the charts appeared like a head and shoulders had just occurred and we are some months away from the completion.

    I believe the highest probability is for the next leg of the downturn to be completed by October. I feel the total market has about 13% more downroom to go with the Wilshire 5000 headed to somewhere around 11500 level.

    The pattern that formed with the selloff from 2000-2002 was that price would drop in long-term drips that appear on the chart. The price would get to a certain point to rally over months of time only to be sold off to a new lower level.

    This time around it appears the selloff is more sharp and to be expected from such an obvious head-shoulders type pattern. It looks like this drop is going to occur at twice the speed of the last.

    Notice on the chart lower lows and lower highs since mid-2007. Short term I expect a next leg down and another new low and then a rally to another lower high. The spring will appear to be good, but then the summer will get awful with the climax being in September-October and probably the highest volume drop will come then.