2009 Goals Iâm excited as 2009 will be my first full year trading independently full-time. I plan to write an investing journal on here to track my performance, progress, mistakes, lessons learned, and hopefully some winners. I will start with $650,000. My goal is to get the account to $1 million by the end of the year. 2009 sure is going to be an interesting year, probably still dominated by macro factors. I think itâs going to be harder to find variant perceptions between reality and true fundamentals as the severe recession will make the fundamentals difficult for the vast majority of companies. Thankfully Iâve found there are always opportunities in every market. My goal is to build a community of a handful of smart investors that will help one another become better and thrive. Happy New Year to you all.
My Channel Checks - GMCR, ATVI, ERTS, MGM, COST December 29th, 2008 | Categories: Channel Checks One of my hobbies is shopping and observing what retailers are doing and what people are buying. At least a couple times a month, I visit Costco, Best Buy, Target, Walmart, Bed Bath and Beyond, local malls, etc. I will post my anecdotal observations as I see them. -Keurig single-serve coffee makers are on fire (GMCR). They are front and center when you walk into my local Bed Bath and Beyond. At Costco, I see tons of them in peopleâs shopping carts. I guess 40-50c per decent cup of coffee is beating even the $1.30 you pay at Dunkin Donuts or more at Starbucks in this economy. -Videogame band kits sales are imploding. Everywhere I go I see piles and piles of inventory of Rock Band (ERTS) and Guitar Hero World Tour (ATVI). Looks like retailers extrapolated last yearâs sales trends, not thinking people arenât really going to spend $190 for a second set of eye sore toy band instruments in their living room during this recession. I actually picked up a new Rock Band 2 kit for $109 with $25 gift card during a fire-sale a couple weekends ago. Things are that bad. They sold me a $189 band kit for effectively $85. Sick. -Casinos are imploding. A week ago, I saw a $99 a night deal at the new MGM Grand at Foxwoods on their website, so I gave it a shot. Hell $99 for a brand new casino hotel room is a pretty damn good deal. When I got there, I was shocked how empty it was. There were 3X-4Xs more casino employees on the floor than players. The Foxwoods buffet was more than 1/2 empty during a key dinner time period. I heard that MGM already let go and bought out 40% of their new employees with more to come. On the flip side if youâre looking for a good deal, now is the time to go. When we left with one last breakfast meal, it was like having a personal chef cook us eggs, toast, and potatoes made-to-order as we were the only ones in the food court area. -Private equity companies are toast. At Toysrus, I noticed that they are pricing certain items UP. Yes you read that right. I saw a number of PS3 games priced at $68.99 instead of the normal $59.99. The private equity owners think they can pull an Eddie Lampert raise prices on poor people because they donât have cars and are forced to shop at their local K-Mart strategy. Guess what guys? Thatâs not going to work in this economy. Ever hear of everyday low prices by this company called Walmart? Once one person realizes they are trying to rip people off, you kill the brand image as people like me tell the world, âDonât shop at rip-off Toysrus!â -While chowing down on my $1.50 hot dog and soda at Costco, I noticed a trend in most of the shopping carts that go by is they are filled mostly with consumables like toilet paper, paper towels, and diapers. There are less discretionary electronics, TVs, and entertainment purchases than even a few weeks ago. Bad sign for the economy.
Channel Checks - JOSB, COH January 1st, 2009 | Categories: Channel Checks Couple quick comments here. I see on the Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) website they are running a sale for 4 days through January 3rd, if you buy one suit you get two free. Thatâs never a good sign. The bear case for this company has always been it carries way too much inventory vs. the competition (Menâs Warehouse). I was at an outlet mall and the most crowded store by far was Coach (COH). Take that for what itâs worth.
How long have you been trading total? At first I was going to ask why you would start out with $650k during your first full-time venture...but after reading it seems apparent you have been doing this for a while even if not full-time. BTW- Hell yeah Keurigs are the shyt. I wake up, walk by the Keurig on the way to let the dogs out..hit the button, open the door for the dogs, and grab my fresh brewed coffee on the way back. 30 seconds total...well worth .50 a pop to me. ha ha Interesting observation on the Rockstar type games too..I have been noticing this as well...it seems almost like some kind of mini-bubble. All kinds of folks you'd never even imagine would play games are buying these things....I think it'll blow out soon enough. I am interested in reading more of what you have to say.
Hey Reaver, thanks for posting. This is what I have posted in the About Me section of my website (which I am told I am not allowed to link to because the admin wants users to stay on EliteTrader): "About Update: November 17th, 2008 I am a self-employed, full-time independent investor. Before investing on my own, I had about a decade of business experience in various management consulting and buy-side analyst roles. I am a big believer in data-driven, fundamental research."
That's it?? Not going to tell us what you traded or why. Not even a hint as to how long it took, how many shares, how much heat etc.etc. Should be a real interesting journal.
I just scalped an market index etf today, nothing too interesting. I will post more in more detail in the future when I have good fundamental ideas.