Mr. Bull, We've Had Enough with Your BS. You're Fired!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by schizo, Jan 14, 2020.

  1. Seaweed

    Seaweed

    See, that's exactly my point. You're saying that it's crazy for some people to say a PE ratio of 50 will cause a crash since they are used to a number of 12. All those numbers were based on money actually having a value, and interest rates being "normal". These days, money have no value, interest rates are near zero, or can become negative, so any idea of what is normal is really out the window. If the business community can accept 50, fine. If the business community can throw billions of dollars at companies that burn money, fine.

    None of these numbers matter anymore so it doesn't really matter what they are or what someone things of them since it can be spinned in any sort of direction.
     
    #41     Jan 16, 2020
  2. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Come back to reality; the chart says 24.7 is the current P/E and we haven't been at 12 since the mid 1980s. So if anybody is still "used" to 12 they may still have a Commodore 64 on their desk.
     
    #42     Jan 16, 2020
  3. Seaweed

    Seaweed

    But from the chart, both mean and median are way below your current 24 at 15 and 14. In fact, only 3 times has it gone above 25. And although the 2 recent ones have stayed above this number for many months, they have both come crashing down. So if anything, your chart shows that 24 really isn't sustainable.
     
    #43     Jan 16, 2020
  4. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Your analysis of that chart is terrible. Throw out anything before 1990 it's irrelevant. Mean and median aren't 14 or 15 in the modern era. Why on earth do you care what the P/E of the SPX was when interest rates were like 10-20%
     
    #44     Jan 16, 2020
  5. Seaweed

    Seaweed

    It's all irrelevant. The earnings part doesn't matter anymore so the whole metric is useless.
     
    #45     Jan 16, 2020
  6. schizo

    schizo

    Number of days since and % change from 3294:

    Day 3 : +0.68%
     
    #46     Jan 16, 2020
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    You should also, for the heck of it, post the closing price with the percentage change. For transparency purposes. :)
     
    #47     Jan 16, 2020
  8. schizo

    schizo

    Fair enough, but I'm not too concerned because charts are pretty much accessible everywhere now. However, I'm sticking to the "% change" to show how many days would elapse before it drops 10%. As we all know, 10% drop is the precursor to a recession.

    Hope that makes sense.
     
    #48     Jan 16, 2020
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    We've had 3-4 of those in the past 2 years. Where's the recession?
     
    #49     Jan 16, 2020
  10. schizo

    schizo

    Did we? I never noticed. :)

    Anyway, this is all for fun. Don't attach too much meaning. For the time being, trade well and live well.
     
    #50     Jan 16, 2020