If you really believe that, and I am not saying you don't, wouldn't you buy all you could, even on margin? 150% returns in 9 months are hard to come by.
I honestly hope it works out for you. I haven't bought any, but will be honest - it's taken discipline to not bite.
A new article I meant to post earlier: Will Melco Hit The Jackpot In Macau? Posted on Dec 26th, 2006 with stocks: MPEL Jeff Chen submits: There is no question that, in the long term, Macau has the potential to be a very lucrative gaming market, but Melco PBL (MPEL) is betting heavily on explosive growth in the short term. When I saw this IPO down a road a month ago, I thought for sure it would be one of the hottest of the year, rivaling Nymex (NMX) . But so far it hasn't turned out that way. So is right now a good buying point? Well it depends on what you think of the risks presented in the IPO prospectus 1. Politics. Melco has not hammered down a land lease agreement for their City of Dreams complex with the Macau government yet, even though they're already committed financially to its construction. When you throw in the additional factor that commercial land in Macau is white-hot right now, I would guess Melco does not have too much leverage in these negotiations. City of Dreams is expected to come on line in 2008 and provide a large bulk of Melco's earnings, so any delay would be very detrimental, especially considering how leveraged Melco is. 2. Infrastructure risk. I was in Hong Kong this year and decided to visit Macau. Unfortunately the only methods of transportation available were expensive and likely inaccessible to the mass market ("high-speed" jetfoil, helicopter, or plane). I took the jetfoil. The ride was 45 minutes long and extremely turbulent. When I got off the boat I was definitely not in a gambling mood. The jetfoil was also about 20% full. On the other hand, all you need is a car to get to Las Vegas. So the question is: will foot traffic increase at a fast enough rate to give Melco a decent return on its massively leveraged investments? 3. Competition. The huge Wynn (WYNN) and Sands (LVS) projects are expected to come on-line at around the same time City of Dreams does, not to mention two big casinos have just opened up (Galaxy StarWorld and another one that I can't remember the name of). All promise high-end amenities and full entertainment suites. Where is Melco's moat? 4. Weather. Macau isn't located in the middle of the desert where every day is sunny and there is no risk of anything damaging infrastructure, save terrorism. Macau is comprised primarily of two islands - two very small islands. Typhoons are common in the Pacific, and we all saw what happened to Harrah's (HET) properties in Mississippi when Katrina hit. But Harrah's was diversified enough to recover from that damage, while all of Melco's revenues are derived from Macau. Should a natural disaster occur, the results on Melco would be devastating. But then again, if I were to put all my eggs in one basket, Macau is definitely pretty high up on the list of baskets. So, as long as you feel the risk/reward is favorable, take a shot at it. It is after all one of few IPOs in the latter half of the year to fizzle even with a compelling story and great potential for growth.
It doesn't have to go up forever... just for a few months. Since it's not even opening til fall of next year, whether the stock makes money or not will depend on the news and the hype. While the lawsuit is worrisome, my understanding is that it is preventing one of the 2 partners from raising money... they raised money with the IPO already, and could probably float more. There's not as much news on this stock as I'd like... but considering how hot all halfway decent China businesses have been (look at Efut.... that's worth about $6... and it's gone as high as $50), and that the principals are not no-namers... it's like gambling on Donald Trump. Odds are better than usual IMO. There's no way anyone should put all their eggs in one basket. But if you consider that IF this takes off, and it's a big IF or it would have already taken off, having only 100 shares costs roughly $2k. Taking off would mean this stock could go to $100 (only 5x IPO)... which would be betting $2K to make $10K. Not bad odds when you see people laying down @ $457/shr for Google hoping it will move $5. (and people are still buying... and they made a huge $1.57 a share today... whooppee) Pros: well known developers who already have a lot of assets. Concept awsome... Chinese love to gamble, and there's no Vegas at all in China right now. Con: do they have enough money and land to make this happen? No big deal: competition. Frankly, if there were only 2 casinos in the middle of a remote area, who'd want to go? What MAKES Vegas is the competition.... there's more to see and do. If there were 2 hotel/casinos in all the Vegas desert, who would even bother going? That's like driving to a mall 1 hour away to find it only had 2 stores. Would you do that? Or would you drive 1 hour in the other direction for a real mall full of stores.... and competition? The 99 cent question is, do they have the land and resources to pull it off? The stock prices haven't taken off... but they also haven't fallen thru the floor. Clearly some people believe it can happen, or it would have dropped below the IPO by now. It hasn't. What does that mean?
Yah... $6.06 gain on EFUT today. I stopped playing that last month when I posted it, but looks like the 2 man EFUT buy/seller team are back from their 2 week vacation and starting up again. LOL! God I made a lot of money playing that one last month. Fun fun. I hope MPEL hires itself a 2 man buyer/seller team to manipulate prices as well as EFUT's does. MPEL went up almost $1 today... it's no EFUT, but then, EFUT wasn't so hot at the IPO either ($6.75 hmm?)
Hong Kong Gazette 28DEC2006 for immediate release. WINNIE HO DEAD! > In a tragic accident a wayward rickshaw collided with a fruit stand and set an actor filming a karate movie nearby into an exaggerated flip. That actor landed on Winnie Ho, 83. Now dearly departed. Rest in peace.
She is not! LOL! Here's some interesting dirt on the Ho's: http://www.asianpacificpost.com/portal2/402881910674ebab010674f4ce50144f.do.html "Asian Organized crime sources told The Asian Pacific Post that Ho and his connections are listed in numerous classified intelligence files. "I am sure that our politicians know about this but he still has unfettered access to them," said the source, adding the issue has been raised in the House of Commons. During another scandal involving him in the Philippines that caused the stock market to crash, Ho took out ads in Manila newspapers to defend himself from allegations that he was linked to organized crime. Those allegations stemmed from reports in Canadian government files. In the ads, Ho noted his "substantial investments" in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto. "I have traveled freely and been welcomed there, including to Vancouver in 1997 when I hosted delegates at my hotel (Sutton Place) in Vancouver for the APEC conference, and to the United States when I met with President Clinton," he said. Ho by then was named or listed in several Canadian intelligence databanks including the National Security Register of the Canadian spy agency ? CSIS. In the United States, a report prepared for the Department of Justice by Philip Baridon listed Ho as one of 27 people linked to Asian organized crime who are on an American watchlist. Ho's named was removed after his lawyers visited with Department of Justice. Unlike Canada or the United States, Ho has never been able to make much headway into Australia because of extensive Australian Security Intelligence Organisation reports on his background, connections and links. Ho does not view the country as a "friendly nation", according to a Queensland-based China analyst. Ho failed in his attempts to get a casino licence in Australia. The New South Wales Gaming Licensing Board (now defunct) has a report on Stanley Ho which is stamped "never to be released." Its officials have deemed Ho "an unsuitable person to hold a casino licence"." Read the rest of the article... very interesting... he's an Asian crime-lord? These casino's are money laundering operations? :eek: :eek:
This doesn't surprise me in the least. He's a rightful Asian Bugsy Siegel, he is.... ...nothing gets your laundered money cleaner than a casino.