I don’t use moving averages neither. As you said it’s just a mean, among many other, for trend identification. It’s just an average. It doesn’t imply anything. It’s left to interpretation. Some say … Buy above (Momentum). Other say … Buy below (Mean Reversion). Still it’s a way to standardize a system. Think about the turtle traders … You can’t give them your eyes. You need to make it systematic. Maybe the sma (and its derivative) could be part of the system.
Sure, I have no problem with others using MA either. But if you're at the mercy of MA to make trading decisions, I can assure you your probability of success will be very low. On the other hand, if you're proficient at reading PA already, moving averages can become a useful tool.
I use EMAs just to clarify some PA behavior. For instance, the slope gives me a visual idea of the pressures being exerted in a trend. Then gaps above (between) the EMA and the lows of bars is a bit indicative of the strength and or weakness postures of the of the bulls and bears. Likewise gaps between the high of bars and the EMA. Also, the EMA is useful for analyzing MTRs (major Trend Reversals). I do not use any EMA or SMA crossovers as entry and exit points.
You are looking for "Self-fulfilling prophecies" Technical analysis is to men what horoscopes are to women. https://coinpush.app/the-psychology...-fulfilling-prophecies-and-confirmation-bias/
Moving Averages are not miracle, they are just guide. I use them every day for decades. Check My simple entry models
This is a widespread misconception: the traders who react to it are “trading” CFDs, so their “trades” aren’t actually IN any market, and can’t therefore create a feedback loop (or any other realistic influence) on any market.
1. Stan Weinstein's 4 stages and 30 weeks moving average. 2. The moving averages are key for trend following strategy. 3. A few examples why sometimes moving averages work. Take a look at the 50 SMA for the following. HD - 2014, 2017 KR - 2014 CBOE - 2017, 2021, 2023 GIL - 2024 MSI - 2024 Only for the slow and patient traders.
Because before lots of people relied on them which caused them to become a source of market irrationality. One example is 200-SMA test in some equities - popular signal such that when many traders attempted to trade it, it worked.
The biggest problem with using MAs is lag. ie group delay. John Ehlers is the man to whose material you want to study when it comes to removing lag. Technical Papers