wwatson1, Are you using any other rules? My numbers dont look remotely like yours. I enter long on ema(10) > ema(200) and exit on ema(10) < ema(200) Reverse for shorts. .25 slippage on entry and exit Holds over night, and only enters/exits on crossovers. ============== SUMMARY =========== Net 803.0 Winners 299.0 Losers 825.0 Trade Count 1127.0 % Win 26.53061224489796 Break even 3.0 Profit factor 1.165183851889946 Avg Win 18.943979933110366 Avg Loss 5.892424242424243 Avg Trade 0.712511091393079 ============== SUMMARY =========== peace axeman
So the system did have a drawdown of almost 50% at some point (the big drop from 400 to 200), which is to be expected for a simple system like that. I prefer systems with drawdowns below 30%.
Even worse... Here are the results for the BIG SP back to 82 (NOTE: The data does not come forward enough, so thats why the big dip at the end is missing, which you see in the 1st equity curve ) This is the system developers paradox. Look back far enough, and everything stops working. So should you trade it or not?? peace axeman ============== SUMMARY =========== Net -1878.3500000000004 Winners 1010.0 Losers 4142.0 Trade Count 5169.0 % Win 19.539562778100215 Break even 17.0 Profit factor 0.8183598377340793 Avg Win 8.378910891089113 Avg Loss 2.496632061805892 Avg Trade -0.3633875024182628 ============== SUMMARY ===========
Here is the ecurve of the ES system ive been working on for a while...and trying to finalize. peace axeman
I could tell ya, but then id have to kill ya Yeah.... looks good so far, but will drive me CRAZY trying to trade it. Trades very rarely, as you can see. Seems quite robust as well. Need to verify it in several more ways. Then ill consider a 6 month test period with 1 lot. peace axeman
that's pretty conservative, but there's no sense in throwing cash away unnecessarily. Good luck with it. It looks consistent. Will that be the first ever time you go live with a mech system?
I have done 2 full auto systems so far. This is a first for me though. Its my first statistical based system, developed in a "tradestation" style... aka datamining, etc, etc.. So I have to be real conservative. Im still a newbie systems developer. Im in the "prove to myself im not curve fitting, or fooling myself again phase" for this system. peace axeman
I'm also definitely a newbie systems developer. I've tried a lot of systems, though definitely not put as much in yet as I believe you have. I remember and appreciate your posts on my systems thread when I was starting out a while back. Good luck with this system. I'm trading a mech system now, and I will never go back to seat of my pants scalping. I have found so far that a system with infrequent trades seems to be a good recipe for unwavering adherence to the rules. Good luck!