During my 5+ years of i have noticed one particular con... scam.. BS.. that entices and deceives nearly every new trader.....including myself years ago... WHAT IS THAT?? SOME vendor is selling a system in which he/she claims all types of wonderful profits to be made by using his particular moving average crossover system.. i have seen many different MA combos in many different time frames... they share one thing in common... they do not work and NOT ONE PERSON I HAVE CHECKED EVER TRADED IT LIVE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AND SHOWED THAT IT WORKED..i am posting this in the hopes that at least one new trader will save himself time and money from investing in this crap.........since forex is the new game for 2004 i have noticed this crap being promoted to forex traders... oh well said what i had to.. thanks
It's just a tool not a bible. And yes they do work on many occasions. Be it self-fulfilling prophecy or scientific fact, MAs have help me in my trading.
Saying that moving average crossover systems don't work is utter nonsense. Crossover systems with out filters may not work well, but creative systems can work very well. It is heavily dependant on the markets traded however. But trending markets like currencies can be traded well with MA crossovers. Do a search on www.wealth-lab.com and look through the various systems. A large number are crossover systems, and many of them are profitable.
any kind of "tool" described anywhere that is public knowledge is shit. for the simple reason that anyone smart enough to know something that works is not typically dumb enough to share it. however, many shitty "tools" can be molded into something that works. successful hedge fund managers used to buy those systems advertised in the backs of trading magazines in order to simply take what worked from them and chuck the rest.. many daytrading firms will aggressively attempt to recruit traders who have some technique that works, so that they may use it to their own advantage, whether that means writing a book about it, teaching it to their traders, etc., and the guy who originally had the technique is left saying to himself, "now why the fuck did I tell them about this?" when the technique becomes so widespread that the people on the other side of the trade learned how they were getting bled by it.
MA's are great during trending periods and horrible at consolidation/oscillating periods. Like any other tool, use it at what its best for, but not for everything.
I'll take the other side of that trade and say the THEY ARE THE ONLY THING THAT WORKS in trading. They key is of course to know how to use them in what market and within which context.
First...you posted a similar message like this before but not mentioning anything about Forex nor vendors. Does your belief include traders that use MA crossover systems that aren't vendors ??? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=29553 Although he uses some sort'uv crossover along with another indicator as a filter...he seems to be doing ok. Secondly, can you define live for period of time... In realtime online...in person...1 week, 3 months, 2 years...what ??? As I've already mentioned, you said this back in March of 2003. Although you didn't use all caps to highlight some sentences. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=14557 I posted in your prior thread and you did not respond to me nor to anybody else after my response... It was pretzel the first to respond and show some nice chart examples. My point in that thread was for someone to contact you...to show you or for you to contact me so I could put you in touch with the trader I knew in the #IndexFutures room using MA crossover... I later found out he exclusively used it with no other indicator filter except for a price action filter based on Japanese Candlesticks. Anyways...your failure to respond then and never contacting me about this trader that posted his trades in realtime almost every trading day... Told me one thing... Your just venting and nothing more. Regardless whether he contacted you or not...you let a window of opportunity pass you by in watching someone trade a MA crossover system and post his trades in realtime. (Note: He does not trade Forex. He trades the eminis and changed his user name in that room. You can always show up and ask.) Last of all...why would someone show you in realtime or in front of your own two eyes if your going around posting its scam or BS. I also doubt your interested in contacting any ET member that uses a MA crossover system successfully or implies it works. At least fake it and pretend your interested in learning and maybe an ET member will contact you in thinking they're not wasting valuable time and energy in helping you. Maybe your issue is with vendors itself and not about any particular MA crossover system. P.S. The traders I've mentioned in this thread are not vendors. NihabaAshi
most funds dont trade on technicals at all....it is very rare to find a firm that looks at technicals to initiate positions....if they use them at all, its usually as a filter....the funds that DO use 'technicals' are usually quant funds that have complicated time distribution sequences & algorithmic parameters to initiate positions, and dont use MA's oscilators, s/r or any of the commercial/conventional TA 'tools'
some do. and if they are right---huge returns follow. way bigger returns than statistical arbirtrage, et al . however, the big words in my statement are " IF they are right"