A friend of mine just showed me an interesting web site (movies.hsx.com). Although, I doubt there is any serious simulated trading mechanism in the web site, it still makes me wonder why there is no movie futures/options in the financial/casino industry, which allow hedgers and speculators to bet on a pre-released/released movie for their own purposes. What do you think? Do not feel weird. We have commodity and temperature futures for some times. Why not movies?
Use box office income as the price of futures and options contract, too easy to be manipulated? Right there is not simple objective standard to measure a movie in the market. Okay just ignore my weird thinking. But if one day you make a fortun because of me, let me share some with you please.
This is a great idea. Studios often dilute their risk in a picture when they're not too sure about it's box office, or if it's over budget. The studios were reluctant to bankroll Forrest Gump, so Tom Hanks and the director, Robert Zemeckis took a larger than normal percentage, with little or no money up front. They saved the studios maybe 20 million up front, but Hanks and Zemeckis both ended up making about 40 million EACH. Futures would have to be sold based on revenues, not on income, obviously(screenwriter William Goldman said profits in hollywood are like the horizon, the closer you get to them, the further they move away from you). Also, you'd have to consider some time frame, since movies generate income indefinitely.