Mouse not only in ATM, but also in FDIC fund

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GEBAKK, Aug 22, 2009.



    Hello ladies and gentlemen,

    It looks like the mouse was not the only one staying in the ATM as you can see in the newspapers and on the web, but there are also many rats in the FDIC fund balance. According to my calculation the hole by now is 36 billion.

    End Q4 2008 the FDIC fund balance was 19 bln.
    End Q1 2009 the FDIC fund balance was 13 bln.
    In between 22 banks failed with 9.5 bln assets and 8.0 bln deposits.

    (19 mrd - 13 mrd) / 8.0 mrd = 75%

    In Q2 23 banks failed with 27 bln. assets and 20 bln. deposits.
    Say 75% x 20 bln. = 15 bln.

    Fund Balance 13 bln. - 15 bln. = -2 bln.

    In Q3 already 35 banks failed with 52 billion assets and 45 billion deposits. Say 75% x 45 bln. = 34 bln.

    Fund Balance -2 bln. - 34 bln = -36 bln..

    What did Bernanke say yesterday? You may rest assured? (words also spoken by minister-president at the evening before World War II).
  2. Your calculations are wrong.
  3. You're extrapolating wildly...

    The FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) has been collecting fees (which, btw, have been increasing), which means the fund's assets grow, as well as shrink from having to pay for bank closures. This completely invalidates your cost = 75% of deposit gap calculation. In reality, the cost to the DIF is almost always more than 100% of the deposit gap.