Most volatile moves in the ES?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by schulzey, Jul 5, 2012.

  1. schulzey

    schulzey

    Hi everyone, I've primarily been an swing trader in stocks and am switching over to Eminis. Since I'm going to play the ES for short term trades and M6E for longer term trades I need to understand the risks of the short term ES trades as it's unfamiliar territory for me.

    What I'm curious about is how fast and by how much the ES can move against you when things get crazy volatile. I've heard of some big moves happening very fast in the ES afterhours catching people by surprise.

    What is the biggest and fastest move that someone has seen trading the ES during US market or after market hours? Some people have told me they've seen 40 point moves afterhours in a matter of minutes.

    If these kinds of things happen often where they would blow past stops, I might reconsider how much capital I'm planning on putting towards my ES trades.

    As always, thanks for any input!
     
  2. schulzey

    schulzey

    I would assume there are some horror stories out there with price blowing past stops. I'd like to hear them to know some worst case scenarios.

    I'm still trading the ninjatrader ES demo until I get a feel for how everything goes.
     
  3. Check out market behaviour from about 08:46:30 EST onwards on September 11, 2001.
     
  4. like the man said, "The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
     
  5. schulzey

    schulzey

    I don't have charts that go that far back with intraday data. Is there any way you could post it?

    I'm just looking to see worse case scenarios. ES is a lot of leverage and I want to be prepared for all the things that can happen.

    I'll end up trading the M6E for the most part but I'd like to trade short term here and there on the ES.
     
  6. schulzey

    schulzey

    I'm not looking to hold on to a losing position with an irrational market. I never let a position go past a stop I set before I enter a trade.

    What I am worried about is things out of my control. Fed announcements (although I can avoid those), natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc. I'm just wondering worse case scenarios what could happen in the ES.
     

  7. Being "worried" about things out of your control is an exercise in futility. However, from a pure normal trading standpoint, you should have knowledge of exchange price limits for the instruments you trade. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/PriceLimitGuide.pdf for ES.

    More important is to have contingencies for things you can (somewhat) control: power outage, internet outage, no cellular signal, computer/monitor/router/other equipment breakdown, lost reading glasses, heart attack while sitting at your desk, etc.

    Trivia research can be fun I guess. But you are wasting your time attempting to devise a realistic plan for exogenous and/or extreme events.

    OMG, it's a runaway gap!! Lights out, Virginia.
     
  8. I knew it was bad when cattlle were limit down and I showed up at the cathedral at 9 pm and the only other guy in there was on his knees and I knew he was also long, and he was a moslem and I was jewish. On the third night a catholic also showed up and not only did it break the next day but the back months rallied.
     
  9. #10     Jul 7, 2012