How long is "long term" ? "Long term investors" who bought US stocks in 1929 waited for over a decade to break even. "Long term investors" in Japanese stocks in 1990 are still waiting (18 years later) to break even.
Hard question to answer because things change these days. These days we are in a global mkt so throw out the old statistics. Commodities are still more about supply and demand but we have seen the seasonals change in AG's such as Soybeans because Brazil as example is a major producer now. Weather is more important than ever due to increased world demand. Corn is used to con us into thinking the government is concerned about the oil companies and high oil prices. Great excuse for food companies to raise prices. The USA and the higher, MUCH higher debt has changed the fundamentals of the Dollar, Bonds, Notes, gold oil, etc. The list goes on. How many believe inflation is dead and buried? What "WAS" is no longer valid these days, just trade what you see and forget history trends etc. Housing is STILL in DEFLATION. Did i mention we have had a complete idiot in the White House for 8 years? Did i mention about a guy running for president that has a message about change? Did i mention that many out there are forgetting that just CHANGING from republicans to DEMOCRATS is a huge CHANGE sorely needed? Do not forget a vote for old man Mccain is a vote to get the youth drafted, boys and girls alike. Do not believe banjo when he says drafting girls will get many young men to sign up. (all in fun banjo) The world is more in flux than ever before, expect it to continue and faster. BOTTOM line, trade what you see and forget what was. Lets make some bacon nest week. The Olympics of sports is over, now we move on to the Olympics of politicals.
This will happen anyway, as most will be in debt and will have no other way to finance their "education"--the perfect invisible draft. Just like the invisible tax called inflation.