2 or 3 months of drawdown?? Try a quarter of a century, like the stock market crash in 1929 (it lasted 25 freaking years)! Not shorting the market is totally absurd, period, because the whole trading business is about making money regardless of market direction. Good post Themickey, I don't always agree with your trading ideas but this one is spot-on.
Yes i didn't trigger a short. by the time the down trend was confirmed it was over. For the most part I don't short. Not in my system.
There is nothing to feel, short any downtrend and profit, what's the problem? A "crash" is simply an uptrend in reverse.
An uptrend could go sideways for 20 years or more! The trader should trade what is happening here and now, up or down, no matter what the "real" trend is. Like a true Ninja, one moment I am buying, and the next I am shorting relentlessly. In and out, that the secret...
I have never seen a short trader on this forum. This forum did not have much traffic during the 2008-2009 period. Back then Karl Denninger's Market Ticker forum was the place for shorts. Also, zero hedge was not terrible back then. Since the Fed brought in the bazooka (look at a chart of SP500 from 2010 to 2020), the market has been "highly propped" in the long direction so I have never shorted since (just went to cash here and there and then bought the dip). The market (indexes of NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Dow) will "always" be propped going forward from here because the Dot com bubble and the quickly following real estate bubble showed too much of the shell game and bookmaking and numbers runner activity behind the curtain and scared the average Joe. The Fed had to rig it so that Joe would come back. However, shorting individual stocks is highly profitable because most of Wall Street is now is a magic bubble show. Now you see it, Now you don't. And you can bet heavily that most of the bubble promises that these companies make are "not real". Just wait till they get big and fat and short at will.