Most Profitable Trade Idea for coming Global Slowdown/Recession

Discussion in 'Trading' started by BrandNewTrader, Jul 26, 2006.

  1. I agree with shorting real estate. you're assuming that real estate is going to perform even more poorly than the broader market when the entire market tanks? Interesting. I think real eastate is the obvious early play, not sure that it's going to suffer MORE than other sectors. You mentioned the defensive plays like consumer and health, well those are defensive because people will always need them. People will always need real estate as well. Shorting then NOW is a good idea b/c they are coming off expensive valuations and a crazy bull market. But when the economy begins to go to sht in 2007, real estate probably won't be the WORST performer... tech, media, etc... just my opnion. I see the logic in shorting it, just dont see the logic in focusing on it as a sector (puts on housing-related ETF's and construction indices??) assuming that the entire market will tank.

    Right now, I'm thinking LONG oil, corn, sugar, gold. SHORT equities.
    Not making any dollar plays, too much involved there and I have no idea what China is going to do with its reserves. The dollar play may take a while to develop, in fact the coming slowdown will probably force the US govt to show their hand. In a time of crisis I thinkt he dollar will come under huge pressures from either the gov or large specs and since I'm a small fish I'm not trying to be on the wrong side of any huge gaps, etc. Especially in the currency market.

    Haven't figured out how to play the credit market. Defaults and bankruptcies are about to skyrocket. I guess a way to play that is to SHORT a high-yield index or some type of aggregate index. Not very experienced when it comes to debt, especially high yield.
    #11     Jul 27, 2006