1) 1970s data are certainly helpful when we're talking inflation and commodities. Data since 1997 may or may not even be statistically significant depending on how it's sliced and diced. 2) As for Fed activities, it can't be quantified precisely, but many think they're doing a lot more off the books than official QE/POMO $ numbers suggest.
1. What makes data from the 1970s more credible than current data? Alot has changed since the 70's... 2. Your opinion is based on what "many think"?
1). Yeah, but if we take the 1970s data, I would suggest that your interpretation of it is excessively simplistic. Specifically, commodity price rises mattered in the 70s because they fed into wages. If there's no such passthrough inflation might not happen this time arnd. I am not suggesting inflation won't happen. I am just saying that, contrary to what the inflationistas would have you believe, (hyper)inflation is far from a foregone conclusion. 2). Ah, sire, you disappoint me... I didn't think you were one of the tinfoil hat brigade, but it seems you lean that way as well. I can't argue with vague suspicions and "what many think".
looks like the gallery beat me to it.. =) The Fed isn't selling anything of size and hasn't for a long time....
No mention of the just passed unemployment benefit & income/estate/payroll tax deal? That sucker will do far worse things than QE2. Everyone got every break they ever dreamed of, which means the deficit is going to absolutely skyrocket. The bond market cracked big time today. QE2 is just a drop in the bucket compared to this nonsense. The Fed would need to announce QE3 to 10 just to begin to mop up the excess debt that's about to hit the market. If there's inflation in the future, blame it on this deal. Ben is just a footnote on the balance sheet.
He is correct. You are disingenuous. He is doing an excellent job preventing a deflationary spiral. He hasn't printed enough though. Now, take your tail inside and run.
All hope is not lost yet as tax revenue is not the problem: spending is. Cut military spending significantly and we'll be golden.