MOS - Earnings play

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by MrDODGE, Apr 2, 2008.

  1. My target was correct, so I am happy.
     
    #11     Apr 4, 2008
  2. aresky

    aresky

    #12     May 5, 2008
  3. aresky

    aresky

    #13     May 28, 2008
  4. aresky

    aresky

    #14     May 30, 2008
  5. aresky

    aresky

    The Mosaic (MOS) RALLY beginning.

    MOS is very undervalued on forward P/E basis


    FRANKFURT, June 3 (Reuters) - German potash maker K+S (SDFG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) sharply raised its forecast for 2008 core profit for the second time in three weeks on Tuesday, citing rising prices for fertilisers.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL0318851920080603?rpc=44
     
    #15     Jun 3, 2008
  6. aresky

    aresky

    Citigroup Global Markets úD Equity Research

    3 June 2008 night
    What's New ¡X MOS provided select financial and operating guidance for FY09
    and indicated it expects to report "robust" 4Q results. The company anticipates
    FY09 phosphate sales volume of 9.0¡V9.4 mln tonnes (vs. our 9.1 mln tonnes
    est) and potash of 8.2-8.6 mln tonnes (vs. our 9.1 mln tonnes est). Potash
    volume guidance appears light, but our EPS estimate of $14.70 is mostly
    driven by pricing so we are not concerned with the lower volume.
    ƒæ Pricing for F1Q09 ¡X MOS expects to realize F1Q DAP pricing of $1,020-
    $1,080/tonne and potash pricing of $460-$510/tonne compared to our
    respective estimates of $1,038/tonne and $481/tonne, which stand at the lower
    end of the ranges. While there are other variables consider, there may be
    upside to our F1Q estimate of $2.78. In addition, spot markets for DAP and
    potash suggest even higher price realizations in F2Q.
    ƒæ Other Detail ¡X FY09 guidance included capex of $900-$1,100 mln, SG&A of
    $360-$390 mln, resource taxes and royalties of $700-$1,000 mln, and an
    effective tax rate of 30-35%, all well above the prior year due to potash
    expansions and rising profitability. Please see Figure 1 for a comparison of
    FY08 vs FY09 guidance.
    ƒæ Conclusion(s) ¡X Stepping back from the details, we believe this initial guidance
    supports our street high estimate of $14.70 for FY09 vs the Street of $11.26,
    implying that MOS shares are trading at an attractive 8.9x P/E with a free cash
    flow yield of ~10% despite the capex bump. We reiterate our Buy (1 H) rating and $200 target price

    Commodity Agriculture (Citi)
     
    #16     Jun 4, 2008
  7. aresky

    aresky

    #17     Jun 5, 2008
  8. Thats what I've been saying for the past year. The new era is real, and I am making a lot of $$ with MOS and Visa stock. I know how to make money in stocks and am rarely wrong.
     
    #18     Jun 5, 2008
  9. S2007S

    S2007S


    Those AG stocks will fall just like the rest of those stocks that everyone thinks only go one way, UP.


    When GOOG was 700 everyone thought it was going to $1000, what happened, stock fell over 45%, CME is another high flying stock that has recently dropped off a cliff, every stock will shine and every stock will fall, just like these AG stocks, they will fall very hard just like every stock that becomes the darling of wallstreet.
     
    #19     Jun 5, 2008
  10. Doing very well this year. I don't see MOS or Visa topping out anytime soon. GL
     
    #20     Jun 5, 2008