Mortgage Investments time to short?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by swimmus, Jun 15, 2003.

  1. swimmus


    I am looking at NCEN with massive amounts of insider sales happening, nearly a million for June alone, as being a good indicator as the upside is very limited from here.

    My plan is to buy puts either on the next few up days or wait for a break below 44 on strong volume. However, I am concernbed on two counts- one they have a split coming in mid-July and it is in the hot real estate market.

    Does anyone have insight in mortgage sector and care to comment on my plan?

    Here is the link to the chart I am using:
  2. swimmus


  3. Why do you want to short a stock which is in clear uptrend and has recently taken out two year high. It might have a small pullback. Several stocks in that sector are making multiyear high. Probability they will base at these prices and go higher and not suddenly turn south.
  4. swimmus


    The stock took out support is down almost two bucks today. The chart looked ready for a pullback.
  5. If you want to short that stock, where would you place your stop?
  6. Lots of housing stocks got hit hard recently. NVR, HOV, and RYL. Don't count them out just yet though. Many have been shorting them and getting their butts handed back to them.
  7. swimmus


    I shorted this when it broke 44 and came back to retest and got a buck and half. I expect this stock (and the sector in general to bounce soon and shake out the shorts)

    I bought some puts just in case the downside has more room, but mainly just doing some skimming off the top til some major support is broken.

    Entire sector is getting weaker but it is not over yet, I agree. or these stocks, It almost looks like March 2000 but I could be wrong. Time will tell....

    Take a look at the charts in this sector though. One thing that really makes a bull argument is the low volume sell off (so far).

    I started this thread because I do believe the Fannie Mae news will weigh heavily here.