...Should the S&P 500 follow Toddâs forecast, the index would tumble to 560 and then surge 47 percent to finish 2009 at 825. Wall Street equity strategists lost credibility last year when none predicted a down year and the average forecast was for a gain of 11 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aUX5fDy9mtbQ&refer=home They "lost" credibility only "last year" ?
The prediction may not be that far off for a SnP low near 500 if you use historical Gaap earnings PE ratio. See the attached link and draw your own conclusions. The year end SnP prediction of 825 is ridiculous and not achievable IMO and would have to assume a mid year recovery which likely won't happen. http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html
technically - i see no evidence of a bottom. volume has been unimpressive and declining every day of the last couple days. stocks are still all downtrend - this is a rally which looks shortable. i won;t because i'm a wimp. thats not to say i wouldnt like to be wrong - but trying to be objective I don't see what everyone is all jazzed up about..
Maybe you guys should subscribe to the Royal Bank of Scotland forcasts. This is what they said last June. http://moralequivalentofwar.wordpre...land-issues-global-stockcredit-crash-warning/
Perhaps, ignorance is bliss. Unfortunately, i am student of history, love studying history on my spare time.
Looks like we just got a long signal from the analyst if they say it goes to 560 it will never happen Also CITI and BAC are making profit again, fair value SPX will be 1000 by the end of the year instead of calculated 750.
'Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it' perhaps needs to be statistically evaluated - I think the findings would likely indicate no correlation with 'things seem to repeat in history.' Furthermore, just because you studied something and are obsessed with avoiding repeating it, doesn't mean you will somehow increase your chances of avoiding it, especially if you do not understand the underlying causes of why it happened. And Taleb would say it is impossible to precisely understand why anything happens - it is our explanations after the fact (look to the news media) that give us a (false) sense of grasping events outside our control. With that said, I think there is little evidence that history repeats nor we have any meaningful way of preventing it from rhyming. And any decisions based on the expectation that history repeating will result in success outcomes are likely no more highly probable than a coin toss. I really believe that - at least with respect to future events that are more to do with political economy vs the hard sciences. With the economy and politics, it is a matter of human survival, and thus gaming and competition come into play. That changes the dynamic to beyond comprehensible when you throw in real world data sets. Very unlike seeing what happens when you mix baking soda and vinegar and predicting the same thing to happen next time around.
I recall they were one of the few calling for this last summer (Jim Sinclair being one other). Skf went haywire in July and you know the rest.