So how is the Trumpnomics going to work out. Trump voters should remember they voted for this recession. One strategist lifts recession probability to 75% after Trump’s win and recommends how to position for it https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...recommends-how-to-position-for-it/ar-AA1u8VK1
Yes, we are likely headed towards a recession. A recession was likely no matter who took office. For example, look at the direction of consumer confidence the last three years: down over 20 points. A less confident consumer tends to reduce spending on large purchases, adversely affecting the economy. Has not consumer debt utilization increased under the Biden Administration? If debt utilization levels off, economic growth is likely to level off as well, or worse. Just yesterday, the Fed announced they are going to be less accommodative than indicated earlier. It is very interesting to see the Fed deciding to become more hawkish against a backdrop of declining commodity prices and high consumer debt loads. The equities market had the worst one day drop in a while, after Powell announced the Fed's changed stance. Can you fathom why that might be? Is the Fed trying to accelerate our path towards a recession? If so, it could either be good or bad for Trump, as an earlier recession can be credibly blamed upon the Biden Administration. A deep and durable recession will likely put increased political pressure upon the Trump Administration, however.
Let's see how long it takes Trump to screw up the great economy he inherited. Data proves Trump 'inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets': report https://www.alternet.org/trump-inhereiting-improving-economy/ Two weeks ahead of the official start of his second presidency, Donald Trump is slamming the United States as a "disaster" on social media. In a New York Times report published Sunday morning, White House correspondent Peter Baker lays out how current statistics defy the president-elect's claim. "New data reported in the past few days indicate that murders are way down, illegal immigration at the southern border has fallen even below where it was when Mr. Trump left office and roaring stock markets finished their best two years in a quarter-century," Baker writes. "Jobs are up, wages are rising and the economy is growing as fast as it did during Mr. Trump’s presidency," the Times correspondent continues. "Unemployment is as low as it was just before the Covid-19 pandemic and near its historic best. Domestic energy production is higher than it has ever been," Baker adds. Furthermore, Baker reports "the America that Mr. Trump will inherit from President [Joe] Biden" beginning January 20 "is actually in better shape than that bequeathed to any newly elected president since George W. Bush came into office in 2001." During his 2024 presidential campaign — and just weeks before his second term — Trump claimed "immigration, crime and inflation are out of control," Baker notes. However, he adds, the president-elect is moving back into the White House with an enviable hand to play, one that other presidents would have dearly loved on their opening day." "President Ronald Reagan inherited double-digit inflation and an unemployment rate twice as high as today," the Times correspondent emphasizes. "President Barack Obama inherited two foreign wars and an epic financial crisis. Mr. Biden inherited a devastating pandemic and the resulting economic turmoil." Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Sandi told the Times that the MAGA leader "is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets." Zandi emphasized, "The U.S. economy is the envy of the rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is growing more quickly post-pandemic than prepandemic." Similarly, University of Virginia’s Miller Center's director William J. Antholis told Baker that regardless of Trump's claims, the incoming president is "stepping into an improving situation." Bates adds, "After inheriting an economy in free-fall and skyrocketing violent crime, President Biden is proud to hand his successor the best-performing economy on earth, the lowest violent crime rates in over 50 years, and the lowest border crossings in over four years.
Mr Carville is wrong about Democrats losing over the economy,but is right that the economy is not good.Millions of Progressives like myself and Muslims in MI and WI weren't voting for Genocide Joe or his sidekick no matter how good the economy was.
Are you playing half-court tennis? Well at least Trump won't allow anybody to record the carpet bombing so the progressives and Muslims won't be troubled. During a recent interview over on the Dwarkesh Patel channel, Professor Sarah CM Paine (who teaches Geopolitics over at The US Naval War College) gave a brief mention of what she calls “Half-Court Tennis.” This is when you only pay attention to what’s happening on your own side of the net. For example, “Ball is heading to X, I too must move to X,” without paying attention to what your opponent on the other side of the net might be up to. She gives a good example from the early 1930s. The USA was then in the midst of a depression, so to protect jobs they implemented massive import tariffs. Suddenly Japan couldn’t export anything to the US, their biggest customer. Unable to produce all their own food themselves, and without being able to export, they found themselves no longer having the money to import food to feed themselves. Though Japan came out of WWI as one of the keenest internationalists, this move by the US put a quick end to all that. Next thing you know, the Japanese Nationalists have taken over, especially in their army. Thinking they can no longer rely on international trade, they decide they will need to create their own empire and soon invade Manchuria in China (which was the army’s idea). But they don’t stop there. Within a few years they kicked out the Dutch from Indonesia (for the oil), then attacked Burma (British), Singapore (British), and of course, Pearl Harbor (American). WWII begins. Yes, history is complex and there’s a lot more nuance to this story, but Professor Paine’s message is clear- when it comes to grand strategy and geopolitics, do not play “Half-Court Tennis,” like the US did in the 1930s. This also applies to our businesses, of course. After the War ended, the UK car industry decided to put strict tariffs on foreign competition. Long term this didn’t protect the jobs as they’d promised, what it did instead was destroy any incentive to be better than the next guy. And a fairly militant Trade Union movement at the time just made it worse. Sure, for political expediency their Government tried to subsidize car companies that made seriously inferior products that nobody else wanted as best it could, but that was doomed to fail eventually. By the 1980s, British car manufacturing was a wretched shadow of its former self. They weren’t watching Volkswagen. They weren’t watching Toyota. They were playing Half-Court Tennis.