More trouble in Iran

Discussion in 'Politics' started by parker, Dec 27, 2009.

  1. parker


    Iran: Just Before Ashura
    December 27, 2009 | 0429 GMT

    AFP/Getty Images
    Iranian opposition supporters at Tehran University on Dec. 13 hold pictures of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
    The following is further information from Tehran regarding the events of Dec. 26 and what can be expected to happen tomorrow.

    Around 3 p.m., it had became clear to the protesters that they could not gather and congregate in one spot and the chances of arrest were high. At this time, word came that former President Mohammad Khatami was giving a talk at approximately 6 p.m. at the old compound where the founder of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, lived in the 1980s — known as Jamkaran — which is in the affluent north part of the city. Khomeinei’s family has been quietly leaning in favor of the protestors. Thousands of protesters started taking cabs, buses or the metro to the Jamkaran mosque-residence and security personnel also relocated to the scene.

    Around 5:45 p.m., the area was filled with people. There were an estimated 1,000 people outside and 800 inside. There was a great disturbance all around but security personnel were keeping a wary distance from the mosque itself. This was for one reason: They didn’t want to be seen as desecrating the Khomeinis’ residence to the extent possible.

    As more people started coming, with many arriving from previous street battles a few hours earlier, they started chanting. Scathing slogans were raised likening Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Umayyad Caliph Yazid, whose forces were responsible for the killing of Imam Hussein (the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad) in A.D. 680 in the Battle of Karbala on the first Ashura. By 6:30 p.m., enough security people had congregated and the dangers of the gathering turning into a huge demonstration were high enough that the security forces charged the protesters. Khatami’s talk was stopped midpoint, and threats were broadcast to attendees via loudspeaker. Despite the warnings, as many as 4,000 people refused to disperse. They spread in Tajrish Square. By 9 p.m., sporadic demonstrations went on all over the area.

    The demonstrations tomorrow, Dec. 27, on the day of Ashura will likely be larger, but only by small increments — perhaps with 6,000-7,000 more persons. The regime’s show of force and application of brute force will probably prevent the protesters from threatening the regime’s existence, but there has been massive attrition of the security forces. For the first time since the founding of the Islamic republic, regular Muharram activities have been stopped at 9 p.m. — a major shift because usually they continue until the early morning hours.

    The derogatory sloganeering against Khamenei represents a psychological blow to the regime, and is gradually undermining the foundations of the regime. Discord among the leadership is reportedly reaching critical levels. Meanwhile, the number of protesters has remained steady in this latest wave of demonstrations. What happens Dec. 27 will be very telling in terms of where things are headed for regime stability.

    I see this potentially escalating quickly. I think the current leadership is baiting unprofessional Iraqi security forces into a conflict with regular intrusions into Iraq near oil wells in an attempt to build up support. This will prove to be too little too late late; I think the tide has already turned against the current regime. Iranians won't be fooled by this gimmick.

    However, that does not mean that a conflict won't quickly erupt between Iran and Iraq (US, oh and Israel would love to join in on the fun).

  2. 30 years and yet america hasn't been able to topple iran's government, this nonsense shit is going to keep going on and on
  3. parker


    The chaos is continuing today. More and more protestors are joining in as night began to set over Tehran. Mousavi's (former pres candidate) nephew was reportedly killed in early morning skirmishes.

    I'm surprised no one hear thinks this could have a big impact on world markets, and soon. This isn't the "normal" anti government movement. These are regular people, previously unengaged, getting active. Love it or hate it, Iran, after all, is arguably one of the most stable centers of influence in the region. Not to mention the support they give the US/anti taliban movement in Afghanistan.
  4. U.S.(CIA) should use Iraq as a proxy to kill Ahmadinejad, cut the head off the chicken.
  5. parker


    you guys are missing the point.

    All we have to do is stay out of the way, let this thing take care of itself. The people of Iran clearly want a break from the current path. When a huge percentage of your country is impoverished, out of electricity, food etc, you can't go on beating the wardrums baiting the western world's hatred.

    However, even if we do stay out of it (at least internal matters), we will eventually get dragged into the conflict a la Iraq.
  6. Illum


    Some of those Iranian women are freakin hot as hell.
  7. Kerry to Go to Iran .....WTF?
  8. Tresor


    Yes, America simply should invade and bring democracy and peace to these oil fields. Pardon, to these people!