More talk about the Fiscal Cliff!!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Jul 10, 2012.

  1. S2007S


    I will try and post as many "fiscal cliff" articles as I can between now and January 1st, 2013. Should be interesting to see how many hundreds of articles will be written on this over the next 6 need to worry though, they will do what ever it takes to avoid the fiscal cliff, thats why I am so confused as to why its even being talked about.

    That 'Fiscal Cliff' You're Worried About? It's Already Here | July 09, 2012 | 02:41 PM EDT

    The much-bandied about “Fiscal Cliff” is already here, according to economists and investors, as businesses curb spending in anticipation of the higher tax rates and reduced spending set to be enacted at the end of this year.

    “The fiscal cliff is not just a year-end story,” wrote Michelle Meyer and the economics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a report to clients. “We expect the uncertainty shock to be realized in the coming months, escalating before the election.”

    The economists argue in the report that businesses have already started to curb investment and hiring plans in the face of this tightening of fiscal policy, further cutting into GDP.

    In fact, Bank of America believes that the first quarter economic growth of 1.9 percent will prove to be the best three-month period of the year. They see 1.5 percent annual growth in the second quarter and just a 1.3 percent GDP in the current quarter.

    Fiscal cliff has become common nomenclature for the market bears, referring to the expiration at the end of 2012 of several tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush, as well as mandatory spending cuts resulting from the debt ceiling fight last summer.

    President Obama attempted to assuage some of this concern for Main Street and Wall Street Monday by saying he would like to extend the tax cuts for families making less than $250,000 a year. But the market wasn’t buying that a tiered plan would work or even pass Congress, as stocks stayed lower on commentary out of shops such as Bank of America.

    “This summer is going to be tricky,” said James Lebenthal of Lebenthal Asset Management, who is just 75 percent invested at this point with the rest in cash and a hedge against volatility. Along with Europe and China, Lebenthal cites the signs of slowing growth already rearing their head in the U.S., which won’t be helped by the “political rhetoric leading up to the election.”

    June data was much worse than economists’ expected and many of them think the political uncertainty is what was missing from their models.

    Last Friday’s jobs report was the glaring example of a negative surprise as the economy added just 80,000 jobs, 20,000 fewer than economists’ consensus. But June saw surprisingly weak readings of the service and manufacturing portions of the economy too, as well as consumer confidence.

    “We think it is only a matter of time before corporations more broadly slow their spending plans,” stated the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Report.
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  3. gtor514


    The "fiscal cliff" is a great subject for a thread but I disagree with your premise that there is "no need to worry". I think that if a solution is two materialize it is going to come out of the US congress and it is much to polarized with no leadership to produce a compromise. There will be no leadership from the WH, either especially if Obama is reelected.

    I believe you have two extremes that are each hoping to bankrupt the US but for different reasons. The right hopes to force the left to cut their social programs and the left hopes the right will be forced to raise taxes. Neither side is going to give in with the exception of kicking the can down the road for another 6-12 months. But that will be no solution, the US credit ratings will most likely be downgraded once again and it will only prolong the uncertainty of the markets.

    The markets have a right to worry. The expiry of the Bush tax cuts are expected to force a loss of 4% GDP (I think) and cuts in defence and Medicaid/Medicare as a result of the sequestor are probably no better. Either way, it's going to hurt the economy as form of austerity. If you think about it, the US is no better than Europe.
  4. fred1


    the debt of the usa is much worse than the debt in europe.
    much much worse in any economic numbers.

    debt to gdp in the usa is higher than 100%
    in europe it is "only": 87% of gdp

    anything over 60% is not sustainable

    wait until the market will figure that out
  5. Yes but there is a federal fiscal union. In the EU there is not and some countries are higher in debt than others, which undermines the existence of the euro. This is not the case in the US.
  6. gtor514


    I don't think the federal fiscal union is much of a union if you have tea party republicans on one side versus a bunch of socialist liberals on the other in the congress. Things are much to polarized to believe we have a "union" in the US.
  7. S2007S


    So many articles to get to by the end of the year, each one making you believe there is a "fiscal cliff" on the way you really think with the economy as weak as it is and all the worthless dollars being pumped into the economy that now they would all of the sudden let this so called "fiscal cliff" even happen. There is no such thing as a "fiscal cliff", everything will be pieced together by December 31st, 2012!

    How the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Could Hurt Married Couples
    Published: Wednesday, 26 Sep 2012 | 3:10 PM ET
    Text Size
    By: Jennifer Parker,
    Special to

    There are many financial perks that come with being married. Filing taxes generally isn’t one of them. If a complex, arcane tax code leaves singles confused and frustrated, try doubling the confusion associated with credits, deductions and income.

    For all the rules of thumb, there are myriad exceptions, which your accountant should help you navigate. Not sure if you’re getting sound advice? Read on, because these experts give a frank account of tax planning for married couples — the good, the bad, and the ugly.

    Marriage Penalty?

    Some couples receive tax bonuses, and some get tax penalties. Trying to game the system is generally a futile exercise, experts say. “The marriage penalty applies when a married taxpayer filing a joint return ends up paying more taxes than two individuals would earning the same amount of income,” says tax research analyst Lindsey Buchholz of H&R Block.

    For 2012, the marriage penalty is lower than prior years because of tax relief included in the Bush-era tax cuts. Without this provision being extended at year's end, the standard deduction will decrease in 2013, dropping to $9,900 from $11,900, according to H&R Block.


    Deal Ahead of Fiscal Cliff?
    American Tax Havens
    Is Your Money Divorce Ready?

    The marriage tax relief is among the provisions set to expire Jan. 2 that, combined with automatic budget cuts, could trigger what is called the "fiscal cliff" unless Congress intervenes. (More: The Fiscal Cliff Will Cause a Recession, CBO Says)

    At the very least, you should know where you stand. The Tax Policy Center created a calculator to help you figure out whether you pay a penalty or get a bonus.

    According to this tool, couples with roughly similar income would start to face a marriage penalty if they each earn more than $80,000 per year, assuming a simple 10 percent state and local tax without itemized deductions. Though initially small, this penalty grows with income and hits high-earning couples disproportionately harder.

    “I’m annoyed that our taxes will go up substantially,” says newlywed Kerri Damm of New York, a product manager for an e-commerce website. “It’s like we’re being penalized by Uncle Sam for having gotten married, because we are now surpassing an income limitation that is archaic for what is considered middle class.”

    Regardless of where you fall on the married tax rate spectrum, you’ll need to know some rules to soften the blow.

    Filing Separately Versus Jointly

    When you get married, you can no longer file as a single individual. Instead, you must choose between the filing statuses of married filing jointly, or married filing separately.

    “Ninety-nine percent of couples are better off filing jointly. It rarely makes sense for marrieds to file separately,” says Bob Meighan, vice president at Turbo Tax. (More: Most Widely Held Stocks You May Not Know You Own)

    Accountants say filing jointly delivers better tax results because some tax benefits are legally prohibited if you file separately. The most common of these benefits are:

    • American Opportunity Tax Credit – for education expenses

    • Earned Income Tax Credit – available to lower-income individuals

    • Child and Dependent Care Credit – to offset childcare costs so parents can work

    • Student Loan Interest Deduction – for interest paid on student loans
  8. S2007S


    Corporate America Sweats as US Nears ‘Fiscal Cliff’
    Published: Thursday, 27 Sep 2012 | 3:12 AM ET

    More Fiscal Cliff talk!!!

    :p :p :p :p :p
  9. S2007S


    Ahhh futures falling hard on the fact plan B wasn't the fiscal cliff fix well now plan C

    No need to worry.about any market losses, reason why is that lets say the markets drop 1.7% today, well once they approve the fix which will happen in the next week the markets will erase all of today's losses and gain an additional 1-2%. This is just something to sir.back and.laugh at, there is a 99.9% chance a deal is made before the 31st of December 2012.

    Buy the dip and wait for the quick fiscal cliff fix next week. Its need to lose any sleep.
  10. S2007S


    Some analysts had noted that Obama and Boehner were just a few billion dollars apart and that “Plan B” could turn out to the be the legislative vehicle for any final compromise deal.“We will have to be here the 27th no matter what happens,” Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer said. “If there’s no agreement we have to be here to try and hammer out something. If there is an agreement it’ll take several days to write it up–our poor staffs will have to be doing it during the holiday–and then vote on it the 27th.”Democrats argued that Obama’s latest offer to Boehner included a sizable concession. The president said Monday that he’d accept rates going up on household income above $400,000, rather than $250,000, the number he cited throughout his reelection campaign.

    They will have to be there the 27th no matter what....big deal. They had how many years to fix this procrastination. Last minute fix...typical.
    #10     Dec 21, 2012