More Drought Impact On Projections ( Friday 07/27/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jul 29, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News: .


    Friday 07/27/2012

    More Drought Impact On Projections

    This year's tremendous drought--whether it's a flash drought or not (as has been discussed in lively fashion on this blog site)--has again brought on a reduction in crop forecasts. This time, the widely-followed Informa Economics group in Memphis, TN has made another cut in its crop forecasts.

    Informa has pulled its corn crop projection for the end of August time frame back below the 12-billion bushel figure to 11.5 billion bushels. This is 1 billion less than Informa's outlook in July because of a lower harvested acreage figure and reduced yields. Informa looks for corn harvested area to be 85.67 million acres--down 2 million from Informa's projection July 13, and 3.2 million less than USDA's estimate in June. Corn yield is pegged at 134 bushels an acre, down 8.5 bushels from Informa's previous forecast.

    On soybeans, the Memphis group projects end-of-August soybean production at 2.9 billion bushels, down 122 million from the mid July forecast. This projection is based on yields of 38.5 bushels per acres and a harvested area of 75.1 million acres, down 250,000 from USDA's late June estimate.

    The Informa mid-July projection was based on an assumption that August weather would be normal. But the group has changed its tune, and adjusted the corn and soybean production levels to reflect an assumption now that August weather will continue to be stressful--just like we have seen so far this season. Included in the Informa assumptions are the expectation that August rainfall will be on average about half of normal, with temperatures on the order of 3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

    July temperatures have AVERAGED 5 to 10 degrees F above normal. And, of course, precipitation has been well below average during July, which has brought on crop conditions of nearly half the corn and a third of the soybeans rated in poor to very poor condition.


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    Posted at 3:54PM CDT 07/27/12 by Bryce Anderson


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.