More downside action for crude - to test $50

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by Jahajee, Nov 10, 2008.

  1. Wesley Chapel, Florida, November 10, 2008 -- Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell last Friday to a fresh 21-month low of $59.97 a barrel, basis the nearby December contract, amid a global economic slowdown that has significantly reduced demand prospects for energy, including crude oil.

    Weakening worldwide economies have driven crude oil prices sharply lower the last four months. Crude oil futures prices have lost over half their value since scoring a new all-time record high above $147 a barrel in early July.



    Given the specter of a worldwide economic recession and the negative impact on oil prices, crude oil futures traders have taken their cues from the U.S. stock market recently. Big down days in the stock market last week produced a decline of around $10 a barrel in December crude oil, from last week's high of $71.77.



    From a technical chart perspective, crude oil prices remain firmly entrenched in a four-month-old downtrend from the early July high. Serious technical chart damage continues to be inflicted as price action the past month has seen nearby crude oil futures drop below key technical and psychological support levels of $80, $70 and just this week below $60 a barrel. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push nearby crude oil futures prices below major psychological support at $50 a barrel. Importantly, there are no early technical clues to suggest the downtrend in crude oil prices is close to ending.

    Veteran traders know the significance of intermarket analysis. In fact, crude oil has been and remains a key "outside market" that many other markets track closely. This is a prime example of the importance of intermarket analysis. Remember, too, that crude oil has been following the U.S. stock market - still another example of the power of intermarket relationships.



    The VantagePoint daily bar chart for December crude oil futures shows that the predicted 4-day exponential moving average of typical prices two days ahead (blue line) is presently just crossing below the actual 10-day simple moving average of the close (black line), which is a bearish moving average crossover indication.



    Also note on the daily chart for December crude oil that VantagePoint's Predicted Neural Index is presently reading 0.00, suggesting near-term downside price pressure. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today's actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 1.00, indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today's actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 0.00, indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.
     
  2. Hey buddy,

    if you wanted the job of a futures analyst who doesn't trade his own account for a LIVING, Jim Wyckoff already has the job.

    Vantagepoint Intermarket Analysis software is bogus. I paid $5000 for it & the only reason I haven't sued the company is because I like Lane Mendohlson on a personal level.

    Vantagepoint doesn't even analyze outside markets. How do I know? I configured my VP one day to give me forecasts for silver while TURNING OFF its ability to read the "related markets."

    Results? Same exact read-out. Share with us your track record.

    I contend there are NO profitable traders out there using Vantagepoint exclusively.

    The smart traders IGNORE junk like VP & focus on support & resistance.

    You do write well & I commend you. But let's call a spade a spade. VANTAGEPOINT IS PRACTICALLY A SCAM.

    What else would one expect from a bunch of guys in FLORIDA?


    Are YOU currently long or short Dec. crude? Where are you buying / selling? ....I didn't think so.
     
  3. mabenn

    mabenn

    He's right, I got a deal on it but it still wasn't worth it. It's only use is in a "Vantage Point" of the market, I have seen it's predictions completely fall apart for day trading. I don't think anyone can rely on the software exclusively. I think it appeals to the predictions bias and that's why people want it, because they want to think they can predict the markets.

    Not only that, but I have never been able to see where the "predicted moving avg's" cross two days in advance like they say they do. They just cross like any old 2,5 ema would a couple days after the turn.

    All that aside, I have found the Neural Index to be okay for confirmation of my analysis.

    Keep in mind with this, it doesn't take into consideration news releases, events, and live data feeds. So it's use for day trading where you have to react or be killed is quite simply useless.

    I was dissapointed but it's not their fault, I thought the markets could be predicted too. Now I know that you don't need to predict the markets to make very consistent money. You just need to stack the odds in your favor and have a solid low risk idea, proper money management and SOLID Discipline. Vantagepoint is for the people that want to take the easy way out of drive across town for a deal on $25 shoes. There are no short cuts to real experience and there are no shortcuts to real intermarket analysis.
     
  4. Vantagepoint is complete rubbish, the neural index is just some sort of average of previous days prices. I was able to replicate it with over 90% accuracy using simple division in excel. I'm sure I could get it 100% accurate but what's the point as its useless in any case.


    Interesting that you can easily prove that it doesnt do intermarket analysis, as this is what it is sold as surely purchasers would have a very good case for legal action or making a complaint to the regulator.
     
  5. I don't use VP, I will not buy it, I have little or no confidence in these "neural" software most of which are black boxes that may actually be a set of moving averages.

    BUT CRUDE?

    I think it is going up to about $65 or maybe as high as $80, then back down again in Jan/Feb
     

  6. How do you configure VP to NOT read the other markets? If you can prove this I can see no reason why you/we couldnt take legal action. After all that would prove once and for all that it doesnt do what it claimed to do.