Fact 1 - Titanic Shift in party affiliation as More Americans state they are Republican or lean R rather than Democrat or lean D. https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx (and seesee points 3 and 4 below) 4 things to note about this race. 1. (fewer polls and fewer cross tabs to review voter samples ) It seems to me, there fewer poll results are being published in both national and battle ground states. (although I got a bit of the same feeling 4 years ago so it could also be about costs to some degree) In the past I was able to get a good read on the races by "unskewing" these polls to match the previous election turn out and then comparing them to each other. Now there seems to be too few polls and many of the polls no longer reveal their cross tabs. Therefore we can't see how many Dems vs Reps vs Independents they counted. So in short these polls have been worthless as a group. 2. (True up season once again) But once again it is the "unskewing" season because these polls don't want to be too far off when the finally turnout is revealed. They always "unskew" a few weeks before the election and pretend there was a last minute shit to Republicans. So once again we see the media "panic" as the polls unskew a bit.3. (Independents ) 3. The polls which have revealed their samples are in conflict. Some polls have Independents going for Harris. Some polls have them going for Trump. The Rasmuesen guy on youtube says his data currently has independents choosing Trump by a wide margin. 4. Gallup found that there are now more Republicans vs Democrats when asking party affiliation... 48% indentify as Republican - 45% lean democrat. Which is a stunning flip since 1992. https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx My question is where did this shift come from. Did Democrats switch. In which case ... blowout. Did Independents switch... in which case good for Trump but maybe not a blowout. Or... did Trump motivate non voters to vote... In which case he would probably win comfortably and I wonder if they / we vote R down the line. Conclusion All that presumes... accurate vote counts with machines not communicating with outside data centers and we don't see last minute trunks full of dropped ballots etc. All of that makes our country seem like a banana republican and it is disgusting to me and it should be too you. Because if we had accurate voter rolls and votes... our politician would have to make real choices... Guns or butter so to speak. And our votes would matter. Americans would once again realize... if we work together we could prevail over the special interests which convince our politicians to give us the worst policies from the left and the right.... For instance rather than national health care we got screw the tax payers protect the insurance company care. Rather than a balanced budget with our money going towards useful priorities we get the Republicans voting to spend on Corps and the dems to spend on bringing in more potential voters and housing them in hotels. Its sadly ridiculous and the problems start with elections we can't trust because the process is a joke... especially in California and big cities but not just here... )
Classic Jem, over-analysis with a side of conspiracy. Please, tell us more about the 'banana republic' theories and how every pollster is secretly in on it. Seems like yesterday young Democrats registering as Republicans to screw up primaries.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-great-global-warming-swindle.258259/page-11#post-3734777 The above was written in 2013. 1. Races all of sudden tightening was a "news" story I had seen every election for decades. It was typically mostly bullshit then as it probably is now. People don't just figure out who they are going to vote for 21 days before and election. 99.9 percent of the people already know. Turnout could change if something big happens... but typically that is not the case. The tightening is a bullshit cover... for polls becoming more legit... so they can claim accuracy for the next election cycle. Prior to the last few weeks many are being paid to influence the electorate. Who do you thing pays for these polls? Nate Silver wrote about this process a few cycles after I observed it and he called it herding. But, here at ET I noted with facts and links to show the samples change to more accurate reflect the previous elections turnout in the last few weeks before the elections... so It was not just innocent herding but crooked unskewing. 2. Your idea that it could be young democrats is interesting. You might wish to read the Gallup analysis for which I provided a link. They went back a long way. Cut and Paste quotes Below were quotes from 2017. 3. I look forward to reading your response. But, I hope I can be done posting here for a while. I know I have a problem with ET. I should be outside hiking. [
There has been a potentially significant amount of "party raiding" going on by progressives and young voters coming in. The level of we-have-already-won bandwagoning by MAGA is off the charts. There is too much abnormal between what will play out. A poll defying black swan seems to be looming. Anyway, I'll step back as poll minutia is not thing.
Election fraud is a real thing. Michigan, New York, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, California are run by commies. The USPS and FBI protected the fake mail in ballots and are stonewalling FOIA requests for postal records. https://patrickbyrne.locals.com/post/6222568/usps-corruption-and-our-emergency-injunction-filing
Just nonsense from election denier and conspiracy theorist Patrick Byrne. His continual nonsense is old and boring at this point
The Economist YouGov poll just got averaged into the Real Clear politics average. It Has Harris Plus 3 but they used a Dem plus 12 sample to get that number. When you click on the poll at RCP you get linked to their PDF... Question 6 has the breakdown of how they got to Harris Plus 3. They had 681 Dem | 178 Ind | 561 Rep That is a Dem Plus 12 Sample... to get to Harris Plus 3. (It is so absurd to use a Dem plus 12 sample at this stage.. I wonder if I am doing something wrong in terms of reading their cross tabs. Also, this means Trump is actually destroying her in the national vote... which I am not prepared to believe either) Gallup just showed us that 48% of Americans now Identify as Republican vs 45% as Democrats. see below. https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx "More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) to minimize poll-to-poll variation in party identification estimates and to provide more reliable comparisons across presidential years given the different timings of the two major party conventions in July, August or September. Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020."