If somebody buys some puts and the stocks go down its no difference if there is a war on or not, its all the same game. I owned some puts on GS before 9/11 happened and tripled my money purely by accident. I felt guilty about it and gave a little to charity, but ultimately I didn't do anything wrong. Its up to the individual if they want to trade on any given day or for any given reason. Bush is not the bad guy traders are not the bad guys Sadam is the bad guy. keep that in mind and you can rest easier.
In your case, it was just luck, not a pending war scenario. You had no intent to profit from the poor outcome of a war in which America was engaged and American soldiers were at risk. Imagine those people who knew 9/11 was coming, the terrorist network who was planning and executing the attack. Suppose they went short the market via puts a few days before 9/11. Was that short a gamble? Sure, it was possible that the hijackers could have failed, right? It was not a given. Suppose the hijackers had been detained and never gotten on the plane, or suppose the Air Force had shot them down in mid flight, September 11th rolls around, the market bottoms and during that time frame and the puts purchased by the terroists who have "inside" information of the potential attack lose their money. But the gamble "paid off" for them. Are they to be admired for their gambling? Are they to be emulated? Were they morally right? That people can see no wrong in Americans betting, not for survival or hedging, but for fun and the pleasure of gambling---betting on the war not going well and reaping benefit from such activity, and are being view as morally "right".....those people have no moral compass at all.
optional, my friends' and family's lives are special to me. so obviously it would be a tragedy to me. but there's nothing inherently special about their lives. as far as the rest of the world is concerned, they're simply human lives, no more no less. i could hardly say that their deaths were any more significant than any other human deaths now could i...
It depends on what you consider family. Is the life of an American more valuable than an Iraqui citizen? I would say no, however if an American dies I feel more as he is part of my country, and I have an attachment to my country more than to Iraq. You appear to have little attachment to human life beyond your immediates, and making money. That may or not be self centered. That I view it that way, is of course just my opinion. Personally, I feel all life is special, and to minimize the death of anyone or try to profit financially from it is heartless, but again that is my perspective.
What a strange day. I'm actually agreeing with the liberals here on 2 points in one day! First the abortion issue, and now I also have moral issues with betting on, and rooting for the deaths of my fellow Americans. Can't do it. The bid for the Bin Laden capture/kill futures on tradesports.com is now up at 57%. This is waaay too optimistic in my opinion, but I just can't bring myself to hit that bid. I'll happily forgo any potential profits, just so I won't have to root for that filthy Mud-slime terrorist .
It's a free country, and a two-sided market. Those who are betting on US success are just as much engaged in a mild form of war profiteering as those betting against it, though the former may feel less guilty about spending their money if they win. Neither group is materially contributing to the conflict, except perhaps in some extremely indirect way. I'm sure you remember how, after 9/11, many were hoping for a "patriotic rally" and some were either promising to buy, or urging others to buy, just to "show those bastards." The idea reflected a misunderstanding of the financial markets, in my opinion. Moralizing over a correctly pessimistic market call likewise reflects a desire to turn the financial markets on their head, and ask them to reflect how we might like things to be rather than how market participants, rightly or wrongly, judge them to be. It is possible to optimistic about the future of this country, or about the upcoming battles in Iraq, but pessimistic about the market, short- or long-term. The opposite is also true. Your friend's mistake may be to think that profiting from a correct prediction of political and military setbacks could make up in any significant way for the direct and indirect effects of such a turn of events. Even if he's the kind of person who can cheerily rake in his gains while the agonies of war and the costs of military and political failure are everywhere on display, his sense of good fortune may be very short-lived. All in all, I don't like his trade simply as a trade. If I did, I might take it. I might even consider it the responsible thing to do, but I would take no pleasure in it, as I'd be too concerned about the future of everything and everyone I care about.
War profiteering? Yes, I support that if it means we win the war with as few lives lost as humanly possible. Betting, if you call being long right now betting, is investing in a market move up. I don't see that the same way as people who are leveraging via short term options looking for a windfall if things go poorly. I suppose if they were able to simply take a position, and not root for the outcome, but remain passive....but that is unrealistic. Imagine a horse race, where people are not cheering for their pony. Doesn't happen. Remember, I am speaking about Americans here, not those who are at odds with Americans. I expect the enemy to cheer for failure of America. Here is an analogy that may help to illustrate my point of view on those Americans who are gleefully betting on problems with a war and the certain deaths of American soldiers as a result: A new gambling mechanism has been developed by a private insurance company to generate profits for the company. Here is what they are going to do. They will issue short term life insurance policies, based on expiration dates of the third Friday of each month, on people who are going in for life saving surgery who have an 80% chance of survival based on similar surgeries. They will make a daily list of people going in for such surgery, and make it public by publishing it on the web. People can place their bets on line. The financial odds are in the favor of the insurance company in the long run of course, statistically speaking, and they payout accordingly on the winners. They will adjust the premiums paid for the insurance policies based on the volatility of death rates, and supply and demand of these insurance contracts. Contracts may be sold to anyone, and resold by a holder of the insurance contracts at any time. The creator of this insurance product, developed the program from actuarial studies, based on mathematical calculations and statistical norms, expects to generate windfall profits for the life insurance firm.....while providing that much needed service for those who want to gamble on the life and deaths of others. Several Wall Street firms are generating competitive bids to underwrite the project, expecting the IPO of the company to generate great interest when the company goes public.