It's more difficult than that considering people are much older and having children. Thus, the old (people > 50) are more likely to have children under the age of 18 and then there's the countless number of people with pre-existing illness (e.g. respiratory problem, cancer, heart problems, blood problems, diabetes, children with low/compromise immune system problems and so on) that are under 30 or much younger. Than there's the countless number of young people that do not even know they have a health problem (healthy, strong) and the Covid-19 then exposes a weakness in them that they didn't even know had existed. For example, how do you isolate someone that has early stages of bronchitis or emphysema that hasn't been diagnose for such nor has it begun impacting their life until Covid-19 shows up. Another example, a young person that's temporary weaken (low immune system) from an illness that they would have recovered within weeks until Covid-19 shows up. Simply, isolating a nursing home or isolating grandparents is only a fraction of the problem. Seriously, how old are the people running the government...should they be removed from their families for weeks, months or years because they are in danger ? As I stated earlier in another thread, as soon as a vaccine or approved treatment becomes easily available to all...people will be getting their flu shot, pneumonia shot and Covid-19 shot about the same time every 1 - 2 years. wrbtrader
Dr. Fauci estimates 200K dead and that would be a lucky outcome. I still think they are under playing it and 500K by the end of the year. The epidemic supposed to have 3 waves, the next one is in the Fall and the 3rd in 2021. The first prisoner died and I expect a huge die off (3-4 times of the average pop.) in prisons, where people are at close quarters with not much health care help. By the end of the week we will have 1K dead per day.
It could take months. China is lying about their dead in Wuhan. The ordered number of Urns indicate 10 times more dead compared to the 2500 reported. 10K dead is pretty much a given. One way to count correctly is to compare the annual reports (assuming they don't alter those) and that would give a clearer picture. Also people with underlying diseases get counted as pneumonia or cancer death but it was the Covid-19 that finished them off. ------------------------------------ The Brazilian president is clearly voting for taking the hit: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-hurt-him-why-bolsonaro-still-shuns-lockdowns Quote of the decade: “The virus is here. We’re going to have to face it -- but face it like a f--king man.”
To top the Brazilians here is the Belorussian leader: "It's better to die standing than to live on your knees," he said, rinkside in full hockey gear, in an interview with state television. "This is a fridge, this is healthy, there is nothing better than sport, especially ice which is the real anti-viral medicine." https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/europe/soviet-strongmen-coronavirus-intl/index.html So in the coming weeks we will have the answer between the 2 approaches, which one is the better for society. We sure live in interesting times...
Daily death is over 500 in the US. In NYC doctors are told to evaluate patients by according to their best chance to survive on ventilators. In short, we have reached the triage phase....
In New York they have 1 dead from corona every 9 minutes. That rate will still increase in the next days. "Just a flu?" like Donald said?
This is the hospital collapse phase in Spain, will happen in the US too. This is what happens in countries that let the virus run its course, Brazil, Belarus: