Moore Inflation Predictor: 8% CPI

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Digs, Jul 20, 2008.

  1. Digs


    If this happens, USA Inflation at 8% then there will be no doubt about a recession, and interest rates will be up !

    NOT GOOD !


    Maybe if oil sell off hard, it may pull inflation expectations down to 6% ?????

    Come on Goldman and JPM sell those oil contracts, yeah right !
  2. Geez. Then the "street level" inflation will be 15%. Lock-in those mortgages and borrow!
  3. I preferred Roger Moore as an inflation indicator. Maybe we should bring him back, 70's and all being redux and all that?
  4. Bernanke is clueless.

    Just today many manufacturers of finished goods announced they will pass through significant cost increases to consumers, not the least of which are Tyson Chicken and Hasbro.
  5. "... If USA Inflation at 8% then there will be no doubt about a recession..."

    You mean the "Official Gummint declaration of 8% inflation"? That WILL be a disaster, as the TRUE inflation rate in the US has already been "double digits" for a few years.
  6. Allen3


    I figure my 5.99 fixed 30 year is pretty good investment. Inflation is killing my savings though.
  7. Just hope the housing market bubble does not cause the actual value of your house to be worth less than your mortgage or inflation will not only be eating into your savings it will also be eating into the capital you have in your house.
  8. three different models predicting inflation.

    Note the ftf model is the moore model (posted here). Pretty wide deviation in predictions if you ask me.

    And moore has only been predicting since 97, with a few anecdotal comparisons on their site. I'd like to see a more objective view of out of sample comparisons.


    Since they are mostly based on CPI (at least I assume so), we should expect regardless of what real inflation is, it is likely CPI will be managed in such a way as to not allow this trend to deviate so wildly IMO.
  9. PS. Here is another indicator from the original source. Looks a little different in this perspective.

  10. Hope the tenants can cope with regular 8% to 15% increase in rent year over year instead of locking in a payment.
    #10     Jul 22, 2008