With the frequent fixation on the "Mag 7" it can be easy for some traders, especially newer ones, to forget about the historically major impact of interest rates on stocks. From my perspective of doing quite a bit of Treasuries trading, this is an important development. The Ultra Bond, UB, often my favorite futures contract, was trading at 116'26, and plummeted over a full point on this news, down to 115'23, that is well over $1,000 per contract. This development will likely have a significant impact on Treasuries auctions for new debt, forcing the US Government to now pay a higher interest rate. It will be interesting to see any shifts in the yield curve. Lower Treasuries prices also means the so-called risk free rate of return goes up, which in turn tends to lower the value of stocks, in compensation for the risk of stocks now needing an even higher rate of price increase to equal that risk-free rate of return. As we have seen before in history, if the risk-free rate of return goes high enough, some will just put their money into Treasuries via various instruments, lowering the demand for stocks, at least for a time.
Maga boys have manged to trick the admins into banning whoever talks shit about Trump. We don't wanna lose ya.
Very nice. I have been short NQ and wrong for multiple days now. I decided I didn't want to hold the risk over the weekend (like I did last week), so I covered my NQ and RTY contracts and bought verticals on NQ out ~1% and ~2% from the 4:00 close (obviously much closer to ITM now). Knowing the after hours, obviously regret it, despite having similar payouts if we close 1-2% lower, mainly because if we open down 1%+ from the 4PM close, which we probably will, my verticals won't give me much more than the midpoint, so I'll be sitting there, not wanting to sell at 60-65% of the vertical, but vulnerable to a strong reversal on the upside. Obviously you know this, I'm sharing my thinking. If we get a big drop and since my verticals don't close to Monday, is there anyway to reduce the risk of a dramatic reversal to the upside if we get a big volume spike lower on the downside? I assume I would have to just sell some or could just buy the contracts outright. It seems the better play would have been to hold NQ short as well so I could take some off the table if there is a big spike down but keep the verticals. I always hate verticals when the directional move happens very fast as I was directionally right but my payoff is so muted. Understanding I am primarily a futures trader that dips in verticals when the risk-reward is strong (e.g. low volatility, too many up days with no pullback), any better way to handle these situations? Thanks!
if you poor bears want help just let me know i will give you access to my personal trades so you can stay on the right side of the market before the market gets there - not after the fact like everyone one else on earth that thinks they can trade.
Dude, what are you going through in your personal life (or trading life) that's leading you to post non-stop toxicity? I don't care if you are a dick, I honestly don't, I just want you to out what's really going on. Just be honest about it.
not me that has the problems - i am not crying about my loss You're talking about cognitive bias in investing, specifically how political beliefs can override logic and lead to bad market decisions, even among college-educated people. This happens a lot — it's called confirmation bias and motivated reasoning. When people strongly dislike (or like) a political figure (like Trump), they often: Seek out negative (or positive) news that confirms their beliefs. Ignore factual economic data if it conflicts with their narrative. Make emotional market decisions (selling on fake negative news, missing rallies, etc.). Even educated people aren't immune because: Intelligence can make people better at rationalizing their bias, not avoiding it. Being college-educated doesn't shield from emotional decision-making. Politics triggers identity-based reactions, which are powerful. Real Market Example: In 2016, many thought Trump winning would crash the market. Futures plunged overnight on election day. But the market reversed and went on a huge bull run. Those stuck in their anti-Trump bias missed gains. Key Point: The market doesn't care about your politics. It cares about earnings, rates, liquidity, geopolitics, and sentiment. Good traders know to: ✅ Focus on data, not feelings. ✅ Trade price action, not opinions. ✅ Use a dispassionate framework (like algo models) to stay objective. Want me to show you a few studies and real data that prove how political bias wrecks investors' returns?
How am I crying about likely being up 50K at the open? @Baron, can he be banned? He is continuing to bring up Trump in non-political threads. The entertainment value is waning.
only continuing to comment on continuing off topic comments in non-political treads. i am offering to help all traders who are short the market because of doom and gloom see the light of being influenced by manipulated fake news. this whole thread again is political in nature and should be moved to politics.
Oh no a downgrade oh no oh no oh no. This is a joke right? If government gave a fuck about 37 trillion in debt they would stop raising the debt ceiling, they would immediately try and fix the spending problem but no one gives a fuck. I have heard for years and years that eventually the system under such a plethora of debt would crush the economy. It hasn't, the spending has only gotten worse and will only continue to rise. And what's the big deal anyway. Equities don't give a fuck about 37 trillion in debt and won't care when it's 38 trillion 40 trillion, 43 trillion 50 trillion and even 73 or 100 trillion. No one cares about the debt the US is in. If they did they would take immediate initiatives to solve the problem but no one has and no one ever will.