USDCHF Hi people, well, been as high as 1.2920 today. Became a bit suspicious, got some warning signals and decided not to enter yet and wait to see more of this pair. Now we are back to 1.2850. The question now it same as always: which way now? up or down...? In my opinion, closing the day at 1.2850 is a good sign. we basically failed to break above 1.29 which is a good signal. Same for Euro - failed to break below 1.1900 - only tested. What we do now? Well, the fact that the price retreated 50 so nicely from the 1.29 is a good sign. Now, if the price will not confidently break upside (and by that I mean above 1.3000/50 where the triangle will be broken), there are 2 options (at least for me): 1. if we see some kind of move upside during the remaining week (i.e tomorrow, Friday), it may be a good entry for short and I will be entering - I will be entering for a break. I will have to see the charts the moment of entry to ensure there are no problems. Of course, it depends how high will it go and how will the price action be conducted. 2. If the bearish view on this pair USDCHF is proven, then we will need to break the support area I spoke about couple days ago - the 1.2680-1.2720 support area. And so, the second option would be to see the break which would prove the bearish sentiment and then seek for the correction to sell. If you recall, I spoke about the possibility of seeing the descending triangle. It can be observed on daily chart. Therefore remains a risk to see another top before possible downside move starts. Sometimes price comes back to broken line after a break and then accelerates the move. If this happens, that may be a good entry. Good Luck!
Hello Everyone, I am still looking at USDCHF for possibility of selling it. If we look at the daily chart (240 min or any other that shows enough period is also ok), we see the price still trading in the triangle I mentioned last week. Similar triangle formation may be observed on Euro. We did see some selling coming last Thursday from the 1.29 area and we moved 200 pips down on that move, but now as we see price was as high as 1.2875 today and currently its trading at 1.2830/40. On the other hand, we have the minor trend line on 60 min charts inside the triangle formation which is providing the resistance for now. We may see the pair selling from here also. Situation is still not very clear and that's why I prefer not to trade it at the moment, even though selling from current levels (of the resistance line) is an option, with stop above the line/today high -> somewhere at the 1.2880/90 and target same support area at 1.2680/20. But I am mainly not a day trader and due to the fact that last week and Friday as well showed not very pleasant closing candles, I prefer seeing a break of the triangle before selling. This is my decision but you are all for your own there. Good Luck! Rezo Shmertz ------------------------------------ Day Chart:
GBPUSD Cable is showing much more confidence recently than other majors against the USD. Even on Friday, when we saw retreat on EUR and CHF and a bit on JPY (most probably position closing), Cable made a new high on that day and even closed the day and week pretty nicely. Same thing today. Euro is trading at the middle of its day range at 1.1967 right now whereas cable is at 1.7910 (near its day high at 1.7925). Cable as well may be a good option to buy vs USD, but first we need to see a break above the 1.80 psychological area. In addition, 1.79-1.80 is a critical point of 2 trend lines which were formed during the recent downside movement (take a look at the chart attached). If we break higher, it should lead the price to 1.84-1.85 area, where it may meat the first resistance. On the other hand, if we fail to break above that area, it may cause another wave of selling which may trigger a retest of recent lows of below 1.75. So what we do? I don't know what about you, but I will be watching it for the reaction on the 1.79-1.80 area... cheers
Breakthrough of Cable and Test of Support on CHF Hello fellow traders. Well, the break of the levels I was talking about on GBP (now trading at 1.8130/40) happened today and I think there is more to come. This break should trigger 1.84-1.85 for the start, and I will be seeking for opportunity to long cable once there will be some consolidation/correction. As for CHF, its currently at 1.2690. It retested the supp area again - the one I mentioned last week 1.2680-1.2720 and for now is standing in that very area. I think it will break the support soon and break of the triangle should cause the 1.22 level. I am saying it will break with this confidence, because Euro already broke similar formation on its daily charts, and therefore its only matter of time when CHF will do the same. I don't think it should take much time. Anyway, I will be seeking for opportunities to sell USD against the majors from now on. I think (lets hope) this is the end of the choppy market, and if so, we can expect for further USD weakness and retest of the highs. This is running in front of the train, so lets give it some time. I already mentioned the different, more confident behavior of GBP yesterday, and therefore I will almost certainly be trying to long cable. I will update once there is some consolidation (and of course we shouldn't go below the 1.80 on Cable, which I don't think will happen according to current charts and break above 2 lines). For charts and explanations on what I am talking about, please see previous posts in this thread. No need in new charts as its all same things. Good Trading Everyone! Rezo Shmertz
Hi all! Market will be choppy today, but I just entered long on EURUSD: buy at 1.2211 stop at 1.2125 first target is 1.24; when/if we approach that level, we see what next. Good Luck!
Focus: selling USDCAD This pair made a very nice reversal and on daily charts we have a well distinguished target of 1.3350 where we have the 50% of the recent up-move and the supp line created by the last 2 serious bottoms. I sold today at 1.3631 and didn't post about it because is was already down when I had time to. Now, as I am typing, its trading back above 1.3630. Stop is at 1.3695 and target is1.3350. On break below 1.3590 (hour close), move stops to entry point. Good Luck!