Monthly Thread: May 2004

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, May 17, 2004.

  1. rezo_s


    Hello Everyone.

    Been away from the forums for some time. Lots of working with creating a company with my US partners, and market was not so good to me (or I was not that good on the markets) lately, so I had a lot of work with the history and my past trades (I think it was worth it).

    My focus now falls on USDCHF. It looks good and may easily show lower levels. I also concentrate on Euro and JPY crosses, but I would like to post on USDCHF. I think it MAY be the beginning of the end of the lately seen USD strengthening. Best signs are coming form USDCHF, loosing 400 pips from Friday (its trading 1.2760 at the moment).

    We saw sell off of the 1.31570 levels in the end of the April - 61.8% retracement of November 2003 - Jan.2004 move and this may be the beginning of the retest of this year lows around 1.2100.
    I will be watching this pair and I think this week, if confirmed, I may sell it on consolidation/small retracement if such occurs. My medium target would be 1.2200. I will post a live call on that one.
  2. rezo_s


    Good Afternoon.

    Ok, we have seen some consolidation on USDCHF after a bounce back from 1.2680-1.2720 support area. This is a strong support,
    - first seen as a resistance in January and then as a support in the beginning of March;
    - then repeatedly seen as a buying area in the choppy market till middle of March;
    - and then seen again as a support on 8th of April;
    - and now twice in a raw: on 05. May and yesterday.

    Having this kind of support which is repeating itself so many times in couple of months means this level is strongly in mind of market participants. Those who were thinking to buy will try to buy there and those who sold earlier will be taking profits or part of profits in that area thus once again supporting the area.
    This area also keeps sellers away from opening new positions when price is there, and that is exactly what is needed in order to break the level and take the price to other range of prices.

    But with all that said, every support area/every support line is by its nature meant to be broken sometime. When? is the question. Lets take a look at the multiple times this area occurred, and then keep on the discussion.
  3. rezo_s


    As I said, every level can be broken and in this case, if you ask me, on scale of 1 to 10, chances are at least 6 or 7 that this area will be broken this week. Maybe even today-tomorrow. My indications are that we will at least retest it once again for a break below.
    Lets take a look at 240 min chart and see the facts:

    - acceleration on the last up swing to 1.3080 high was stronger than of the previous one (the angle)
    - but the high on the last swing was lower than the previous one. Previous was 1.3225 on 26th of April.
    - bottoms of both swings down was same 1.2690 level (which is the area mentioned on the previous chart).

    This makes the picture on charts make look very much like descending triangle which is a bearish formation , but for now its not exactly the same.
    Partially my target 1.2200 which I mentioned yesterday is due to the similarity of the current situation with triangle.

    My Strategy

    I am looking at this pair to sell, and I think it would be good to sell in 1.2870-1.2900 area, but anything above 1.2850 may be also ok. Its hard to predict where will I sell exactly - it may be even below 1.2850 - will see. I am not planning to wait and see the break, because I do not usually trade the breaks. If my indications are good, I usually trade for the break.

    This is still not definite if I sell, but I will post a live call once/if I do.

    Another 2 pairs are the EURUSD and EURJPY - to buy. I will also try to post if I enter any of those, but I do not promise. However, I do promise to post on the Swissy. :)

    Good Trading Everyone.

    Rezo Shmertz
  4. rezo_s


    Sorry all for how the last chart looks like :D, but I just wanted to show everything I write in post on charts, so it will be easier to see what I am talking about.

    Ok, couple words on EURJPY:

    its currently trading at 136.40 after being as high as 137.90 in early Asian session and as low as 135.80 in mid European session.
    I think there is more consolidation/correction to be seen here before/if the price can move further (higher). I am considering to buy this pair for a retest of this year 139 high and maybe the last year >140 high.
    I believe there is a chance for further consolidation due to the recent rally, and maybe it will get to 135.50 area and maybe even 135.00, where it may become very attractive for buying. Will see.
    I don't think I will trade it today. Tomorrow is a new day and we analyze it once again.

    Good Luck!
  5. rezo_s


    We are seeing some more correction coming on USDCHF as expected, and this may push the price to the area I was talking about - above 1.2850 (we are almost there; as I am typing, we have reached the high of 1.2845). EURJPY is going slightly up and is at 136.60 right now, but I belive we can still expect the correction later. Lets see how CHF handles the levels above 1.2850 and to 1.29...
  6. rezo_s


    Morning everyone,

    Well, as I am writing , CHF was as low as 1.2775 after retesting the 1.2850 over the asian session. I may have missed the entry around 1.2850, but I will wait for another last push higher to that level, and maybe even higher to decide whether I enter or not.
    If another push higher happens, I will probably sell then.

    I will post.

    Good Trading Day,

    Rezo Shmertz
  7. rezo_s


    We have been as low as 1.2760 and now back to 1.2820. If it goes to 1.2750 and higher, this pair will be acting as expected. Lets hope it does. In that case, entry will be probably today. Still I dont think it can go much higher than 1.2900...

  8. rezo_s



    I posed yesterday that this pair may see more correction/consolidation and reach 135.50 area and maybe even 135.00. Well, today we saw the 135.50 and almost saw the 135.00. we were as low as 135.15. Currently its trading at 135.40. the price bounced from the minor trend line which can be seen on 240 min charts if drawing a line through 2 recent lows of 131.50 on 05.05 and 133.50 on 05.12.

    If we break this line; I would say if we go below the 135 figure, it may trigger further position closing, stops and therefore buying at the moment is not considered anymore. If the price consolidated around this line for some time (if at least for today there will be no more sharp moves in either direction), then I may consider to buy.

    If we break this line down, I am not saying this pair cannot move higher, but 2 facts should at least calm it down for a while:

    - the price reached the 137.50 area this week and soldoff there, which is a third time this year that this area provided good resistance. This is the first warning
    - on smaller scale, if we see a break of the minor trend line, it may be considered as a confirmation of the warning.

    therefore we need to see how it behaves. for now we see a nice bounce off the supp line.

    Still watching the CHF. For now everything as planned (almost :)). Its currently at 1.2835/40.

    Good Luck
  9. rezo_s


    Well, we saw a small new high for this hour (its 3.16pm CET now) and price reached 1.2855. Once again it met resistance and now its back to 1.2830/5.
    Let see how it goes, and depending on this hour close I may short at market price.
  10. rezo_s


    no, wont be entering at this hour close. It may accelerate the move down, but its too far from the high.

    Prefer missing a good trade rather than risking too much. My stop loss is estimated somewhere around 1.29, and thats a little too much for me at the moment. Maybe in another situation I would take a trade with even larger stop, but not now.

    Chances are getting weak, but it still may go little higher. Maybe then.
    #10     May 19, 2004