Following yesterdays post EURUSD 240min chart triangle, we can see that even though it seemed like euro is breaking upside, it was a false attempt and now we are seeing it trying to break downside. Hopefully break will occur soon and finally give market any direction. Its not certain though, and we may still stay in range trading, slightly changing the range up or down. Lets watch closely what is it going to be. Once again, same as yesterday, I don't suggest trading this break at the moment, but if at all, then with very tight stop loss in place. Good Luck everyone!
Hello Everyone. Well, last weeks' buying of EURUSD (after a break of a triangle) didn't fulfill expectations that it may start the renewed move north and we are still in a range with current top seen at 1.2450/60 area as silent_fish correctly told us, followed by the 1.2500/50 area as the next important level for confirmations that we are really starting to move somewhere. Nevertheless, as I mentioned last week, some other major currencies should and are already starting to show some interesting developments. As we all probably know, the USDJPY has made quiet an impressive move by selling off the 112 zone down to mid 106s, and if we indeed see the resuming of USD weakening, we may soon see this pair breaking the 105 year lows with 100.00 seen as an initial serious psychological level. However, the moment I would like to concentrate on GBPUSD, but first I would like to mentions that USD weakening may indeed be on its way to resume after the short term rebound based on what we see starting on majors. And despite the range on EURUSD and USDCHF, there are little but still some signs of USD going down and tis sentiment starting to come back on market, not mentioning the fall of USD against JPY and Cable (which I will talk about a bit later). If we look at the 4 hour Euro chart, we already see that despite the range, we are already seeing lower lows after each and every selling and if we look at it, it is following the minor (for now) trend line which is in red on the chart. This may end up with beginning of a stronger and more confident move north. But still, its early to talk about it, and once we see it, we may start talking about buying. Lets first allow the market show us some presence of serious sentiment.
On the 4 hour chart we see that the line which was supporting the move down was lately broken and now its moving north with more confidence than Euro is, but the 1.8500 - 1.8600 line is the one we should watch closely (which is a strong resistance - see next post with daily chart).
If we look at the daily chart, we see the 1.85-1.86 resistance area even better and coming from early this year. Also there is a chance to see the reaction on possible head&shoulders pattern... Why focus on GBPUSD? because it looks very promising, and if it manages to overcome the barrier, buying GBPUSD for retest of 1.9000 may be an option soon. Strategy: At the moment it is still early (at least for me) to start buying, but I will look at how this week goes and the behavior around the 1.85-1.86 area in order to decide whether or not to start buying. It may still be a good sign if we close this week above 1.8550. Will see how it does this week. To sum up, this week we wait. There is also a possibility that I will trade USDJPY down, but I am still watching it. This pair has moved with most confidence for now, but I am still watching it. I will try to post if I take any action. For now that is it. Good Trading, best luck, Rezo Shmertz
50 pips target (at 1.2094) and 30 pips stop loss (at 1.2176). Move stops to entry level after 25 pips and lock 10 after +40. Good Luck!