Monthly Thread: February 2004

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, Feb 4, 2004.

  1. rezo_s


    Hello Everyone,

    Little late with opening a thread for this month, but I had some problems with the broker right at the opening of the week :(
    business is business; nothing we can do - there are problems in any business, and ours is not an exception.
    Ok, little bit about the market.

    Well, it seems to me that the market is a little bit confused whether to resume with the USD selling right now or we should see some strengthening before that. USD strengthening was on its way, but as we see, USD is still very very vulnerable and any little reason is enough for market to start covering USD longs.

    Andre said he was seeing the triangle possibility long before there was any indication for it, and he was 100% correct. There is a nice triangle - it can be observed on dailies, but its best seen on 240 mins (EURO). Triangle was also on USDCHF, and it seemed like it was broken, but now there is a "new" one. I think the break of the formation will be the indication to follow.
    Previously, when I was talking about target for the south move, I was talking about 1.20 - 1.2150. As for the possibility for upside - I think its at least the 1.29 top retest. As we see, there is enough room to trade both ways and nice targets.
    At the moment, I am more looking at the downside break, but you never know for sure. If indication are good, I may even enter inside the triangle. Will see.

    This is a very good figure we got here, and market is currently working it. I suppose in the near future the trading range will be tightening as we approach to the corner.
  2. rezo_s


    Here is another interesting situation I am looking at right now. Its USDCAD. As those of you who followed my posts last month know, I was bullish on this pair from the beginning of January, and entered long at 1.3128 with target set back then to 1.3360. Well, the target was met but I was taken out before with smaller profit. Now we have been as high as 1.3440 today, and I am still looking at the pair for possible break upside. Yes, this time it will be a break if we get sustained break above the triple top on dailies.
  3. rezo_s


    If we look at the 240 min charts, we can observe what a nice trend line we got, and its suggesting buying near 1.3250 with stops below 1.32, but on hourly chart, line through recent 2 bottoms suggests buying below current 1.3330 levels, where 3d bottom could be formed.
    In case we do continue north, I think near term target is 1.37 - 1.38.
    I may consider buying near current levels (1.3330). Will see.

    Good Trading everyone, and have a profitable week and month,


    Rezo Shmertz
  4. rezo_s


    Good Morning Everyone,

    Well, we are still in the triangle on the EURO, and are awaiting for the break. It may hapen anytime from now to early next week (I think monday - tuesday is the latest). Break should be impressive, so lets see what will it be. I thought I may enter even inside the triangle (was considering to sell for break south), but now I have doubt if its possible. Will see.
    In short, lets see how it goes.

    Good Trading Everyone!


  5. glad you are doing this thread...



    Hi Rezo,

    How are you?

    As usual you made a very nice job.

    Did you read the G7 press release? We will see when the market opens.

    Good week.


  7. rezo_s


    Hello Everyone,

    Hope you all had a wonderful weekend. Lets take a look at the market a bit before its opening.


    As those who followed this thread know, we were inside the triangle formation on the single currency. This is a major triangle, which is viewable on daily charts, but I was showing it on 240 min charts for better viewing. So, as I said it was a major triangle formation as its on daily charts, and on Friday we got a break upside, which should trigger major move north. This is a great signal for direction to come in the near term AT LEAST!
    1.29 should be retested, so if talking about the minimum target, then there you go. I think 1.29 will be seen as soon as the coming week if nothing dramatic happens. I should remind as always, that this is market we are talking about, so there is no 100%, or even 60%. Everything is possible, but at the moment, the breakthrough out of the triangle and as strong one as we saw is a fantastic indication.

    I will be seeking for an entry to buy from the beginning of the trading week. Sometimes we are lucky enough to see the price coming back to the broken line just to bounce back and resume the way up, so if we see that scenario, it can be used as a good entry opportunity.

    Still there is a little BUT… the break was on Friday, which means that partially the rally was caused by short position coverings. If we break back into triangle, then the original break upside can be totally ignored and we should see further action.

    So, in case price does come back to the break line which is roughly speaking around 1.2620/30, it is still a good opportunity for longs with stop slightly below 1.2550 figure. Stop at 1.2540 looks ok for now. But this is only pre-opening comments, so it’s not 100% accurate at the moment. I will be updating, so those who are interested, van follow.

    At the moment there is nothing much to add on the single currency.


    As for the other currency pairs on the market, well, if talking about the remaining 4 majors, naturally those should also show strength against USD. But the one I would like to mention is the British Pound. It’s showing very nice resistance to any selling, and is looking very nice – even better than EURO.


    USDCAD: Canadian still looks as one of the weakest against the USD, and I wouldn’t recommend to look at selling this pair right now. It may become more attractive later based on its performance, but not right now.



    EURJPY: looks like a good buy. May consider later, but not while I have tradable majors. Crosses can be traded for diversification purposes only. For many reasons, majors are better to be traded, so taken current situation, main focus at the moment is on EURUSD and GBPUSD

    GBPJPY: Just as against USD, cable looks more attractive on this cross as well. Nice and confident move north may be expected

    Have a great Trading week to come,


    Rezo Shmertz
  8. rezo_s


    Hi Paul, thanks.

    Hi Sergio. I am fine, thanks. how are you?

    Well, I see euro is at 1.26 point now at saxo rates, so I guess that G7 meeting is good for USD. I dont follow and dont let it mess with my point of view. I am purely basing my trading on tchnical analysis, so G7 will only make its effect and chart will take it inot general picture. Thats all G7 is for me...

    But lets not jump into conclusions just yet. On Saddam capture we also got -150 pips lower opening, but we all know what happened next...lets see how it goes. I will try to update tomorrow closer to European opening.


  9. this gap down is closing awful fast...
  10. rezo_s


    Thats exactly what I meant when in the previous post I said:

    lets not jump into conclusions just yet. On Saddam capture we also got -150 pips lower opening, but we all know what happened next...

    Its already at 1.2660 after being as high as 1.2670... Nice action...Europe will probably follow this move - we are still below previous week close. Gap still needs to be filled.

    Good Luck!
    #10     Feb 8, 2004