Monthly Thread: April 2004

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, Apr 1, 2004.

  1. rezo_s


    Hi All.

    New month started and I am holding an open position: sold USDCAD at 1.3124 with stop at 1.3235 and initial target 1.27.

    I would like to focus on 2 pairs (I will not talk about EURUSD - I spoke about it a lot lately and it can be found in last month thread with charts - we bounced back from the trend line/support area of 1.2050-1.2100 and now it may be a beginning of renewed up trend. Will see).

    I will post today about GBPUSD and USDCHF.


    Last month when we retested the 1.8500-1.8600 area (23 and 24th of March), I posted a similar chart and said that area was very important because there were 3 selloffs of that area and I questioned whether we would break the resistance that time.

    Well, now its the very same question, and the fact that lately we got the 4th selloff means that its a very important area indeed. Cable is trading at 1.8465/70 the moment I am typing and it has just retested the area above 1.85 with followed selloff.
    This is a crucial moment in my opinion, and if we see a sustained break above 1.85-1.86, its a clear signal market is on its way for 1.90-1.91.
    I think that even if we close the price above 1.84 this week it may still be a good sign market will break that level. I don't know exactly, but I will be looking at the market earlier next week and will post what I think. I am saying that if we break upside, entering longs (for me, possibly only next week) is the scenario after finding good entry. If we do not break but we still stay close, it may still be an option. That is in case there will be no strong selloff and market will show signs of strong upside potential.
    At the moment we saw a minor selloff coming from areas above 1.85, and it only means there were not enough buyers there, and maybe selloff was caused only by profit taking. We will see how it goes and we act accordingly.

    For now we watch.
  2. rezo_s


    Little different but still a breakpoint situation may be observed on USDCHF pair. we are not in a minor but still a channel on daily chart. Even if not looking at it as a channel and look at support-line-part of it as one line created by 2 recent bottoms, its still important to see whether market will be able to break it down and retest the year low below 1.22 or not.
    I don't know what happened if we don't break it, but if we do, it is also a good sign to start seeking for short entries with initial target at 1.24, and possible retest of 1.22 with option of seeing new multi-year lows.

    Good Trading,

  3. rezo_s


    sell $/Yen now at 104.16

    stop 35

    tgt 55
  4. Saham


    and it's 104.25 right now and climbing.

    so, according to you, what do you do? just wait to get 35 points bagged?

    rezco_s, you couldn't trade your way out of a barf bag.

    stop subjecting this forum to your losing Refco management account trading, glamour boy, rambling, psychotic posts/suggestions that make no sense other than to cause (real) traders to lose if they are STUPID enough to actually follow any of your pud-whacked advice.

    Sam (you can go whine to the admins now)
  5. Saham


    By the way, USD/JPY just SPIKED up to 104.80.

  6. Saham


    "a rare forex call" eh?


  7. rezo_s


    Hi all.

    Been away. Had some personal problems, that I had to take care of, but everything is ok now.
    Seems like we are finally seeing some action, but after almost 1.5 months of choppy market, this is still very little to say that we are finally moving anywhere. More action and more confident move is required to say that we are going down on EURUSD. Today we broke the 1.2000 level and are currently trading at 1.1935/40 after being as low as 1.1915.
    Reversal up is still an option (well, actually its always an option both ways). I am talking about reversal up on EURUSD, because of the 2 year up trend. Strong upside trend memory is still fresh, but we are seeing market becoming more and more confident about selling EUR and starting to buy US$.
    If we look at the daily chart, we see that we were is a mixed market with very poor trading, but on weekly chart, we see that market was moving down step after step. I tried to sell euro last week, but was stopped for stop loss. Now I am looking to sell again. Nothing certain, but will see.
    Now lets take a look at the daily chart below. we see the supporting like still being in place (same like I was posting since the end of last month and was selling for its break). We are once again testing it right now and if we see a break of it, we may finally see the breakthrough south. First support is coming from 1.1850-1.1930 area and in combination with (if we see) a break of 1.1850 which is a 50% retracement of 1.0800-1.2900, it may be a good sign of further decline towards 1.1400 - 1.1550 area. I may try to sell for both longer term and small (50 pips) targets after we see some consolidation.
    I will post about other pairs I am looking at a bit later.
  8. rezo_s


    Well, I see while I was away, watchdog was here to protect my reputation. Well, every bug has its place and role in this life, so there should be all kind of creatures :D

    Good Dog :)
  9. rezo_s


    Break of 1.34 resistance area is of a very high importance, just as 1.1850 is for EURUSD and maybe even more. It has been a resistance area keeping USD from further appreciation for over 5 months now. There are good indication that this time we may retest it for break, but will we break it is the question. If we do, strong enough move up should be triggered.
    In case we break it, 1.3750 is the next resistance seen up there, so that is the first target:
  10. rezo_s


    Have put a stop-sell entry order at 1.8120 for case of a trend line break on Cable. I dont trade breaks very often, but this one looks nice, risking only 30 pips with 200 pips potential target .

    Stop loss: 30 pips
    target: 1.7920
    #10     Apr 13, 2004