Monte Carlo Theory

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Albrady, Jul 6, 2006.

  1. Albrady


    Apart from the Stock market I like this Monte Carlo Theory

    Just a simple rule I like it: says for every 100 data point collection there should have been two event occurrences. I noticed that if you want some one to reply to your subject just take the total readers and then divide them on 100 then multiply the result by 2 you can then know the total repliers to your subject..

    Let us apply this on the subjects posted in this section as seen in the word attachment.

    Best luck and you could apply this to any subject you will find it so useful
  2. isn't monte carlo methodology about random events?

    I don't see how this applies to replies vs. views.
  3. I think Monte Carlo is good. Otherwise try Las Vegas or Macau to see what would happen then.
  4. Monte Carlo is about throwing enough trials at a hypothesis (assuming you're roughly accurate on the correlations of the variables) so that outlier events at the 2nd and 3rd std deviations become fully manifest such that one can test for risk-adjusted returns with statistical voracity. 2 out of 100 would easily adhere to Chebychev's Rule and the Empirical Rule in a normal distribution, which is what I believe you are alluding to.

    Is your argument that the number helpful responses to a thread falls within the tail end of the distribution range? If so, your sarcasm is noted. :)
  5. Are you sure you mean voracity, "Having or marked by an insatiable appetite for an activity or pursuit; greedy. Example: a voracious reader. ?
  6. Top the morning to you Albrady.

    I used your method for years with mixed results until one day I tried just dividing by 50 and got a much better result.
    You should try it sometime.