Well yes, the lower the time frame you go the more money you can make, but at some point you get diminishing returns. however, that is not directly correlated to the pattern being different. It becomes more difficult due to catching shorter moves increases the pain of commissions, potential slippage, missing trades due to the speed of the movement and increased likely hood of mistakes. Completely can appreciate and am aware of that. But just because that is the case, doesn't mean the patterns are any different or have changed, it's just more of a human capacity issue / common sense issues regarding commissions, slippage and mistakes. For day trading I find more mid-range time frames to be the best, for me personally. Still allows you to capture a large portion of the move, but is also quick enough to trade both sides of the market, if you don't have any high probabilities of it being a super bullish or super bearish day. Honestly, in the end am only concerned about if what I am doing works and making money. I don't want to be wrong on purpose, but even if my theories are incorrect and I am misleading myself about what I am actually doing, in the end it is working in backtesting and live trading. That is my focus is making money and improving.
But of course they don't on a long time frame. The long term trend of the equities market, at least least, is certainly not random. It is up if for no other reason than inflation. But there are other reasons of course. Sometimes what we believe is not so.
I'm assuming they are not random I'm saying how long does it remain non-random as at least some unpredictable events occur. I definitely agree there are high static carry positions but often you compensate in volatility which might require some of ze hedging. It also definitely depends on transaction costs heavily so in options its very significant. There is work you can read online about optimal control problems for exit and entry but it depends heavily on the drift you assume in your Q
It's organized chaos for sure. I mean I think there are some random movements in the market, meaning you can't necessarily make a strategy to catch them. This most likely happens when larger players are just moving the market back and forth either accumulating or distributing in a range just forcing smaller players in and out. Maybe also known as "chop" to others. But if you know what to look for, there is probabilities to determine if they are distributing or accumulating in that range, and once the business is done is when you'll get an outsized move in one direction, those are the types of moves that are more predictable and can use more defined perimeters to build a strategy around.
Yes, the equities markets are naturally bullish bias. So focusing on long strategies or people who prefer long over short, generally do better. However, the bullish bias of the markets has become a little less these past years. I have no preference and just look for key benchmarks to see if there's more probability in buying or shorting each day (when the stats are clear, not everyday is super clear, sometimes it's neutral day or just unclear to me per my understanding).
%% Plenty of truth there. I dont see much difference in trading + inVesting also. Except 2 big differences; most of the millionaires by far are in inVesting or market making. Smallest % of millionaires in daytrading/dont know about billionaires, dont have goals that big/
%% NOT likely@ all\unless its superVolume + very liquid...............................................