That's my definition of blow-up too. It's really rare/dumb to blow-up ( and eventually end-up owing money to the house) in one single overleveraged trade.
In ags most professional traders trade spreads. Flat-price technical systems may look cool and make fast money in certain markets, but they only really work if everyone is trading the same signal. Spreads are more fundamental and give you a real idea if something is over or under priced. The stochs' may say corn or beans are over sold, but that doesnt matter if Cargill has 1.5mil bushels to sell market. You will get crushed. In a spread you care less about the minute to minute price action and have more time to manage your position. Relative prices are much easier to forecast.
I'm reading this for the fifth time on this board about ORCAM. I've tried to search it in google, there are a few results in Spanish and that "Originating Region Code Assignment Method". What is that ORCAM you're talking about?
Agree 100%. Spreaders mature quicker as they absorb info as it relates along the fwd curve, not just in the isolation of the spot.
Just what type of spread are you talking about? Vertical spread? Horizontal spread? Or merely Arb? Rather than indulging in bland subterfuges, be damn specific next time
Intermarket spreads in wheat markets, Intercommodity between wheat and corn, corn and beans, or corn and livestock. These spreads offer movement that active traders like but are much less random than flat-price trading. Calander spreads are also widely traded, but can be very stagnant in Corn and Wheat at times. They tend to be good carry-out plays. Soybean calender spreads are more active and can be a good place to start trading, but that old crop/ new crop spread can be a killer so be careful in that one.
as I'm just learning the grains perhaps you could answer... Would old crop/new crop spread be Jul10 v Jul11 in wheat and Nov10 v Nov11 in Corn/Soy?