remember a couple weeks back when the dow was 14,000 and MLynch came out with that report that the shorts were at all time highs by the smart money like 45 billion or so, and this female analyst`s opinion was that the dow was going to unbelievable heights over te next few months because all these people had to buy to close ou these positions........at the time I thought to myself, well 45 billion isn`t retail money, and why would you have that conclusion.......who says that when they do the buying to close out the positions that the market will be much lower.........sure enough 800 points and counting lower........she was a female analyst frm MERRILL LYNCH that went on Maria Bart closing bell and it was where they have an outside studio setup, and she thought her analysis was just so insightful and worth noting........didn`t anybody at ML stop and play Devil`s advocate and say do you really think that much money on the short side is stupid money..........remember when bad news didn`t matter.....the market still went up........its only bad news if the market sells off, and it can only sell off if the big guys say so like GS, happened last July, happened again this July, same old game, sell in May and go away, give or take a month or two, but that much money short was not DUMB MONEY, and she should have thought that out a little more thoroughly, that they would buy back only when nobody wanted to buy equities.....as in, much lower....for a nice profit! They run it up, and ride it down
^ Idiot. Doing the opposite is usually the way to go. How he has any money... No one would every know. Maybe Blue uses colored paper?
I do think the market will be down on Monday. The selloff into the close on Friday althought triggered largely by the Bears Stearns staement has created a very vulnerable tecnical pattern and price structure the market may have trouble gaining into
I am short a lot of ES over the weekend and even I don't hope we're down big. We're seen so much down volume without any significant up volume the chance of gapping up and being squeezed to the upside is way way bigger than a follow through collapse to the downside IMO.
My forecast:- The market will ever so cautiously track up .30% over the course of 5 hours and then some company C.E.O will make a statement that will be mis-interpreted by all and at the closing bell the market will be down 2%.
It's really great to see all the doom and gloomers come out when we have a downdraft. When we were at 14000, it was tough to find anyone talking the market down, just like it's tough to find anyone talking it up here. This was just about sentiment, mood, etc... And you should know how fast moods and sentiment can change just by looking around this place. Futures were at 1470 with 2 hours left Friday and a sell order came in. The rest sold because everyone else was selling...they don't know why. Just like many of you, you sell because it's going down. And when it goes back up, you'll be buying for the same reason. What's been done already is an overreaction.
Please stop posting this is just garbage. First you speculate exact movement of the market and then you follow up with speculating why the market will move! Would you mind telling us exactly which companies CEO will make the announcement or at least what industry and maybe let us know what time? Maybe an 11:15 conference call?
My thoughts exactly. However, the bounce off the low friday afternoon may suggest a rally anyway. The Fed does nothing with rates, and removes the bias; market buys. The Fed reassures the market that liquidity is NOT a problem; the market buys. It's the summer doldrums, and traders are reassessing risk. Adjustments in bond yields over this summer seem to suggest so. But, exactly where does this market become cheap or fairly priced? A 136 SPY instills much needed fear and would be a huge bear trap closing out the year. That's not a call just a generalized TA price objective. But, has enough fear and panic come back into the market already, for it to rally towards new highs?