Semantics, maybe, but when a market prints a swing low and trades higher, I think it's perfectly fine to say the market was oversold. Of course, it's not a fixed value, i.e., the market sold of X % or points and can't go any lower. Obviously.
No one knows for sure what will happen Monday. The daily and weekly charts project more move down. However, at some point all this fear selling will dry up when fearful folks and scared institutions begin to see all is not as bad as it looks. You can bet there are some institutions with deep pockets who are loading up. I think we will see some sort of rebound Monday. Maybe a very bullish rebound. However, if the contrary happens and the slide down continues then a trader should know what to do.
This Friday closed down - 5,93 %. To my knowledge, we haven't seen a Friday close down around 6 % since the 14th of April 2000. The following Monday closed green + 3,25 %. If we loosen up the criteria a bit and look for Fridays closing down 4 % or more - we had one in 2020 and one in 2008. The following Monday closed down around 3 % on both. With current index levels a 3 % move is around 150 points. Specifically, 3 % down would be SPX 4922. A 3 % rally would take us to SPX 5227. EDIT: I asked Grok based on my data-set and he's predicting Monday as a down day. LOL.
Say it. I'm not stopping. Wouldn't if I could. More ignorant the better for us. No it is not semantics. OS/OB only exists in the mind of those who are trying to sound smart don't question what they are actually saying - that they heard someone else say. If a retailer, or for the matter a wholesaler, runs out of product they have oversold. A stock or stock index futs, can only be oversold if it goes to zero. And as the example I previously mentioned a commodities such as Crude can go negative till it finds buyers but it is still not be oversold ... because nothing stops it from going even further negative. Boy when you dig a hole, you throw away the shovel and get a backhoe. Then a tunnel boring machine. What's next nuclear?
Bitcoin having a mini dump right now. Since it seems to be the only thing open now, and generally has been a huge tell, I do expect a very low open for the futures market in 3 hours.
Bitcoin has kinda been the market to watch lately when Globex/RTH are closed. But once Globex opens with good chance it gaps down (?) then 3:00am EDT European open (setting my alarm) might set the tone overnight before The Street wakes up. Still what RTH open does IMO is the real deal. Plenty of times RTH reverses Globex and then some.