Monday ES outlook

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by drmarkan, Jul 20, 2007.

  1. To add to this, I have never read of any professional who would state that thinking ahead is a bad idea. If anyone can point to somebody that is truly successful that does not speculate, please let me know.
     
    #11     Jul 20, 2007

  2. Actually, it gives a false bias and typically causes the average trader to not believe what is actually occurring, and as such, they stay with what they believe will occur instead of what is occurring. Predicting market moves is a losing proposition.

    Knowing where S/R is and current market internals is prudent in the present. Forming a biased outlook based on oscillators is not conducive to long term survival. Point in case, markets can be oversold and remain so while still trending strongly upward.

    st
     
    #12     Jul 20, 2007
  3. One thing to consider is that the cash closed below 1440, which is about where it broke out of a range that it had been trading in. Today, it tried to move above that but was turned back.

    I, personally, think that it will try to move above 1440 at least once more. After that, I dunno. If there is some good news (earnings) and lack of bad news (sub-prime and housing), it could recover. Earnings seem iffy to me -- some time ago there was a consensus that 2nd quarter earnings and beyond might not be so great, yet people kept bidding up the market.

    Who is the greatest fool? Are the bag holders about to be identified? I dunno. It could go either way.

    Disclosure: permabear, but long ES.
     
    #13     Jul 20, 2007
  4. "Whitster, just one question: you look at the advance/decline of the previous day?"

    i look at intraday breadth when trading intraday (which is how i make my income) trading futures, but i also have a frame of reference wherein i am looking at on a daily basis.

    for swingtrades, i look at daily and longer timeframes, again as a frame of reference

    as to the other poster who thinks it's wrong to denigrate oscillators.

    personally, i use NO lagging indicators, but with that in mind. i am not so much criticizing ANY use of lagging indicators, but read the original post. this person is justifying a TRADE BASED on an oscillator which i repeat - blech.

    the institutions primarily move the ES. if you think they don't take into account retail traders and their oscillators... well...

    suffice it to say, oscillators hold little predictive value
     
    #14     Jul 20, 2007
  5. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Oscillators have tons of predictive value and are best used to show buy areas within uptrends and sell areas within downtrends. Used correctly they can help predict expected direction after a trade is made. Also, when oscillators diverge with price, there is a great predictive ability as well. Thank you for your time==:)
     
    #15     Jul 20, 2007
  6. lol

    riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight
     
    #16     Jul 20, 2007
  7. Come on over to Buy1Sell2's ES thread and make some calls using a COT report or the VIX or the A/D line. Let's see how much predictability they have.
     
    #17     Jul 20, 2007
  8. I guess it depends on the person. I have never been completely attached to a speculation unless I see the market playing out in the manner I believed it would. For newer traders, you are probably correct that they would be biased. However, if we are looking at what can take them to a more profitable level of trading, I have to say that I believe being able to see the move ahead of it's coming is key.

    We can disagree on that point though. However, I would ask that if you do not want to speculate on Monday, then start a different thread discussing why you feel that this practice is a bad thing. I really was hoping to keep this discussion for people who actually do want to discuss the move.
     
    #18     Jul 20, 2007
  9. I'm not criticizing a person for using lagging indicators...blech. That sounds exactly like criticizing to me. Obviously, this is not a method you are going to use or understand. That's fine. Apparently you do not like to have a take on the market prior to sitting down for the trading day. That is fine as well. I wonder though why you feel it is your duty to try to dump on someone else when they look at things differently.
     
    #19     Jul 20, 2007
  10. you apparently have some difficulty with reading comprehension

    i said i am not criticizing him for USING them (at all) ... i am criticizing him for making a TRADE DECISION solely based on them

    deal with reality.

    90% of traders lose money in futures. it is amazing how many of them rely on the same ridiculous methodology in thinking that squiggly lines based on past price points (stochastic, macd etc.) are going give them an edge.

    and then... they lose money

    i have NO problem with having an outlook and trading plan before the day (or week) begins.

    i ALWAYS do. but i don't base it on frigging stochastics .

    get real
     
    #20     Jul 20, 2007