Monday ES outlook

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by drmarkan, Jul 20, 2007.

  1. I just wanted to post my thoughts for Monday and get some input as to what others are thinking. I hope we can keep this thread civil.

    I definitely think the safe play in the morning is shorting the ES (if it doesn't gap down prior to the open). If it doesn't gap, I think getting short at the open is the play, with the opportunity to hold the short down to 1520.00. If the move down is fast enough, I think we will see a v bottom.

    By no means am I stating that this is guaranteed, so I hope I don't have to get a bunch of responses trying to bash me for speculating what will happen.

    For those that are wondering why I get this feeling, I will explain what I am looking at. The longer term charts still have bullish momentum with regards to the oscillator and the stochastics. The daily 14,3,3 is pulling back to the zero line with a positive oscillator which is where we usually see a turn around. The 60 minute is bearish, which indicates the early down move, but I think we will see the 5,10 start to round up and the 14,3,3 cross back to the bullish side of the zero line as the day goes on which will indicate the v bottom. I know a lot of people are expecting a bigger pullback, but I don't see it. There is also a small trendline that comes in from the two previous lows that comes in around 1520 which lends some support as well. If it weren't for this, I would be looking at 1510 as the support.
  2. No flame here. Applaud you for having actual technical reasons and not just a 'gut feeling'.

  3. i'll flame...


    using frigging oscillators to make trade predictions (especially in the ES) is ridiculous.
  4. andread


    I appreciate the strong opinion, but how about giving an alternative?
  5. From a contrarian point of view, the VIX is way over its 10dma which is a buy indicator.

    Also the VIX candle formation today shows that the panic levels of this morning were driven way down by the close, whch is bullish.

    And my favorite short term indicator, the McClellan Oscilator is at -36 which is also signaling a buy.

  6. I second that. :)

    May as well use a crystal ball, it would be about as accurate.

  7. Yes, wait until Monday and then trade what is in front of your face, not concern yourself three days prior based on what some worthless canned indicator is supposedly 'telling' you.

  8. an alternative ....

    well, personally on a swing basis i use COT reports, support and resistance, sentiment, VIX, Adv/Decl (breadth in general), intermarket comparisons and market profile levels.

    none of these are arbitrary.

    oscillators are arbitrary. they apply a formula to a series of past price points. using these as a predictor for what price will do is kind of silly imo.
  9. andread


    okay, thank you for the answers. Appreciated. Whitster, just one question: you look at the advance/decline of the previous day?
    Since I'm here I would like to give my newbish opinion.
    A correction was to expect, considering the movement of the past days. Today, however, it was probably amplified by some bad earnings reports, which helped the uncertainty of the past weeks in pushing the price down.
    Considering the general outlook still positive, and the quite big movement today (considering the non so terrible news), I would go for a buy. I think today it was an emotional move
  10. It may just be that you don't know how to apply oscillators to understanding future market moves. I always find that the people who bash other indicators in a derogatory manner as you have just don't understand how to use the indicator. I could mock your use of the advance/decline line, but you know that it works for you, and would probably think I don't know what I'm doing if I don't understand it. Well welcome to my world, because that is exactly what I am thinking now.

    Am I going to be right? I think so, but there are no guarantees in this business. Another poster commented that it is ridiculous to think about the move ahead of time rather than looking at what is directly in front of you on that day. This doesn't sound like a very stable trading plan to me. When we practice looking at what is going to follow the next day and start speculating, it sharpens our ability to see more easily the moves that are coming and trade accordingly. Most, if not all, of this industry is based on the principle of speculation. We do it in a much smaller time frame, but it still applies.
    #10     Jul 20, 2007