LL - I agree with you. We are conditioned to respond to these numbers. But still they are there. More importantly is that if you agree or suspect that there are groups working the market that have done so for long periods of time - perhaps even centuries. Whatever - enjoy the ride and make as much as you can.
By 05:30AM on Friday morning all the equity futures were already down 0.4% to 0.7%. This was even before the Exxon and Chevron earnings releases, and the employment announcements indicating a possible rate rise and inflation uptick. Add to that a downgrade of Apple, and bad Google earnings from the night before and the market was predisposed to a having a really down day. Monday morning the market will most likely be down. The banking sector will take a hit from Janet Yellin's "Have some of this" departing sanctions on Wells Fargo after the market close, and that will probably drag the market down in the morning. Whether it stays down depends on bargain hunters stepping in, or fear of further losses causing panic selling.
OK - I did not know about the pre opening data. But based on that, could you predict a 665 Dow decline? I have often seen futures down meaning nothing. Still trying to find out if anyone knows who was selling and who was buying. Sometimes you can tell by volume. However, I know now that on big trades it is broken up into 100 or 1000 lots. Still if you know the market you should be able to tell. FYI - I am long the banking sector. Monday is going to be a time to make big money. Hope everyone is already there.
Some of us cannot be there, because we were already nursing losers based on your bullshit theory. Futures down meaning nothing? Good grief man. What planet are you residing on? Volume. LOLOL!
Experts would say since previous day was long red candle, today there will be long red candle. Experts would also say since previous day was long red candle, today there will be profit taking and price will go up. Experts are experts in predicting. But I will simply trade according to what the chart says. If there is a signal to go long, then go long. If there is a signal to go short, then go short. If price is moving sideway, then don't trade.
I am looking at the Bloomberg Dow mini. Many times it has been down and then on the open within mins. the index is positive. Right now it is down 187. Will it be down 187 on Monday. I doubt it. 1. What is your call on DOW for Monday by 10:30 AM 2. My call is + 250
My call is down another 400. Hell, make it 1000. What the hell does it matter when you have no skin in the game and are looking at a 10K drawdown? By the way, what is with the 10:30 EST thing? That is when the market settles down into a pattern of motion, not a sudden movement.
We appear to possibly be going into a pattern of higher VIX and larger whipsaw days where the Dow can open sharply Down and be positive by the AM Reversal Period (10:15am to 10:45am) and then continue up until the PM Reversal Period (2:15pm to 2:45pm) and finish the day down. The other side of the coin to higher VIX whipsaw days is to open sharply Up, head lower in the AM Reversal and recover in the PM Reversal period. Higher Volatility, Whipsaws and Big Reversals is the only way my trading system works, using deep discounts on the option entry prices in short term mico-trends. Unless the market goes at least modestly positive tomorrow, my puts will not fill.