Monday call! Up or down?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ayn Rand, Feb 4, 2018.

  1. Ayn Rand

    Ayn Rand

    2/2/2018 Friday was an interesting day. Dow down 665.6 with every stock in the Dow down.

    Some of the observable features were

    1. This was an orderly decline.

    2. While volume for most stocks was higher, volume was not abnormally high.

    Decline was led by the Chevron and Exxon. Both down on earnings.

    Most articles also tried to tie the interest rate increase to the decline. I do not know that much about interest rates/bonds but 2.4% or 2.5% - I really do not care. Unless interest rates are like 10% they are not an alternative to stocks.

    I know Tim Geithner from high school. We both went to ISB. He told me one time – “This is the big secret. Stocks are marked to market and stocks are not a zero sum game. When we want to pump here is where we do it.”

    The biggie – who was selling and who was buying? Please support this answer with price/volume/time data

    I do not have or watch the tick data like many on this forum do. Did anyone notice anything abnormal?

    FYI – With the exception of margin calls I am calling Monday an up date.
     
  2. Overnight

    Overnight


    IMHO it wasn't orderly, it was a crash down. Orderly decline was last 2 weeks of December, and crash up was first week of January. After that orderly up until now.

    How do you know this, that those two companies led the declines across the board in everything?

    Yes, volume in CME futures have been abnormally high all week.

    P.S. To answer your question in the title, I call for a Monday down, BIG TIME. I say this because I am stuck in longs and am trying to jinx my call hehe!
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2018
  3. Quiet1

    Quiet1

    Look, it's a "deep-state" warning to Trump and co not to mess with them. Did you not get the memo about the PPT being disbanded and being replaced by the Rally Prevention Team (RPT)?
     
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  4. Ayn Rand

    Ayn Rand


    Both Chevron and Exxon are DOW stocks. Not sure how they are represented in the other indexes. But when you have 2 components of a 30 stock index going down 5%, lots is pegged to how the DOW does. So the DOW does down big time, this trips other sells.

    Do not worry about your longs. At least before 10:30 EST. After that we will just have to see.
     
  5. Dude! :wtf::wtf::wtf:

    A "crash down" is when your screen runs out of pixels.
    Take your graphs out to 4-5-6 years, and look at *those* dives.

    "Them 'er dives, yes-th'are!!"

    Indeed.:cool:

    Oh, and Monday? I can't-in-good-conscience call.
    We're about where the top of a two-year SPX trend would be
    (~2730-ish), but with a brick-on-a-spring pendulum in mind, the closer we get to that trend, the more likely a turn back up. "In real life" I would think that breaking 2700 tomorrow was not an unreasonable thing, but given the last 2 months, I don't think breaking above 2800 is out of the running either. So, "Monday?" Nope. A coin flip.:cool:
     
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  6. Ayn Rand

    Ayn Rand


    You could be right. I am not sure that Trump is aware of the Plunge Protection Team. PPT is black ops at its deepest.
     
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    Yes I did look at them far out, and saw the big crashes down. They did happen over a very short time-frame, and this matched them relative to where they were before the crash. Percentage-wise is where I have the worry. This drop is a piddly 5% over the week but is still a "crash" in every sense of that word. If it were to match the larger crashes percentage-wise DOW would go down another 5000 points. This is the big worry I currently have.

    Damnit, why didn't I hedge short against this? I got sloppy, lost discipline. *sighs* I may take the bloody nose, not sure yet. Janet Yellen's final yelling this morning did not help matters at all, that stupid bitch.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. dealmaker

    dealmaker

    ""
     
  9. Ayn Rand

    Ayn Rand

    666 is the Mark of Beast and I have no idea why this would play out as it has. Very strange.

    To note - No matter what we think we know, there are groups working the market that we have no idea about (their advantage is that they have been doing this for a long time.) Why they might find it amusing that the DOW would be down 665.75 is beyond what I will ever know.

    Monday will make The Super Bowl look like dukey.

    Life is good when you are entertained and having adventures. Good bless The Stock Market.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. 666 once appeared in the market during the height (or depths) of the 2008/2009 financial crisis and also 777.
    You can brush it off there, but for 666 to appear again...kind of opens your eyes,

    Or maybe it's simply nothing. everyday, an array of numbers appears in the market...but we are just conditioned to recognize unique one's like 666 and 777.
     
    #10     Feb 4, 2018
    murray t turtle likes this.