I'd probably would have made Bloomberg Top. As SLE said in another thread, your first job is to not go to jail.
What do you mean? They would arrest/prosecute you with no proof? Is there any legal obligation for you to provide them with proprietary trading strategies?
When insider trading is involved, perception is as bad as reality. I had to explain what I did in broad strokes and it's not like me strategy was that smart.
No, you don't. You simply have to hope a jury of your peers doesn't find that the evidence the SEC presents at trial proves you guilty of breaking insider trading laws. If the SEC decides to press charges. If you can easily explain a transaction and they drop the matter after an hour of your time you're better off in every conceivable respect (money, time, worry..) except your desire to say f you to the SEC. If that desire is so strong in you that it overcomes all the down sides, by all means exercise you rights and do so! Good luck with that.
What do you think is the probability of SEC filing charges with absolutely no evidence besides "he timed it great!"? And by the way talking can always fuck you too. You're inconsistent in your story? Now it looks like you're lying to federal agents and/or obstructing justice that can be used as evidence against you or as a crime on its own. At least the guy in this thread was smart enough to have his lawyer talk to them which (hopefully) made sure nothing stupid was said.
Probably a new account, no trades prior or nothing significant. If you open an account and immediately start building a big position, you will attract attention.
What is the probability? That's your decision to make. I'd say it's non-zero. And I'd sum up the cost to me all-in if they decide to proceed. And I'd multiply the two of those things to get an expected value. And then I'd determine the loss I'd suffer by talking to them for an hour. And I'd probably almost always opt for a polite conversation. But that's just me. I don't value saying F you to the SEC, so if you do you'd need to figure that into your equation. That value would have to be pretty high to make it worthwhile, but only you can know the value that provides to you.
When you trade on SEC-regulated exchange you agree to abide by the regs. Go look at your new account agreement. Then again three square meals a day and a nice set of weights to work out with. The first thing they'll do when you ignore them is seize everything you own, You are guilty until proven innocent. Nice folks.
The SEC probably have software that can detect unusual trading activities prior to certain major events. At one time I received a letter from them saying they were investigating insider trading around certain event and I was a target of their investigation. They asked me to provide them with my trading record, my trading profits during a specified period, trading the underlying. I sent them my trading record of that period on that underlying. I never heard back from them again. Why? I think because I had large trading losses as a suspected "insider" during that period. They only go after smart, profitable insiders.