Missed By a Mile

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dis, Dec 29, 2002.

  1. dis


    At the start of 2002, nine of ten Wall Street strategists incorrectly expected the market to rise this year. Only one, Douglas Cliggott, then of J.P. Morgan Securities, correctly forecasted a sharp decline and remains bearish today

    S&P 500
    Strategist Firm 2002 Target

    Edward Kerschner UBS Warburg 1570
    Thomas Galvin Credit Suisse First Boston*** 1375
    Abby Joseph Cohen Goldman Sachs 1363
    Jeffrey Applegate Lehman Brothers*** 1350
    Tobias Levkovich Salomon Smith Barney 1350
    Edward Yardeni Deutsche Bank* 1300
    Steve Galbraith Morgan Stanley 1225
    Richard Bernstein Merrill Lynch 1200
    Thomas McManus Banc of America Securities 1200
    Douglas Cliggott J.P. Morgan** 950
    S&P 500 875

    *Now at Prudential Financial
    **Now at B&P Research Office
    ***No longer at the firm
    As of 12/27 close

    Source: Barron's
  2. several of those guys actually got fired this year. about time.
  3. tampa


    ..so? what's the point?
  4. Trying to say all analysts are B.S.?
  5. dis


    As a group, Wall Street strategists may be used as a contrarian indicator.
  6. Dis,

    I have completely the opposite....

    all the analyst I remember being interviewed on the financial networks earlier this year...

    most predicted the market will have a down year. A few even said to Short the market.

    In fact, they predicted next year will be a down year also.

    My source of live television interviews are via CNBC, Bloomberg U.S. and Bloomberg Europe.

    Then again...I'm a trader and my job is analyze the current price at the moment and not try to guess what the price will be tomorrow or next week.

  7. YES!!!

    Very keen, NA...

    One thing that struck my eye was AC:

    Abby Joseph Cohen Goldman Sachs 1363

    ...while the rest of them are calling the S&P in 25pt increments, 'ol abby calls 1363...

    i guess she thought she was pretty sharp...heh

    abby, if you're reading this, i think you're a dipsh!t...