From my new membership at http://www.economagic.com/ Here is a picture of how the USA consumer is feeling at the moment. Formula: Inflation plus Unemployment less Rate of Change of House value As you can see from the most recent reading it is as high as any of the previous recessions, and rising. I suppose if I followed the FED I should be using CORE inflation (as none of you eat or drive). CONFIRMED : Consumer lead recession to follow in 2008/09, dont ya think ! Also we know that inflation is much higher than reported, as Clinton changed the calculations in 1991 ( i think). I have found the http://www.economagic.com/ site to be excellent, the developer has work to do to fix up some programming errors, but I am encouraging him to fix them. Bye.