From my new membership at http://www.economagic.com/ Here is a picture of how the USA consumer is feeling at the moment. Formula: Inflation plus Unemployment less Rate of Change of House value As you can see from the most recent reading it is as high as any of the previous recessions, and rising. I suppose if I followed the FED I should be using CORE inflation (as none of you eat or drive). CONFIRMED : Consumer lead recession to follow in 2008/09, dont ya think ! Also we know that inflation is much higher than reported, as Clinton changed the calculations in 1991 ( i think). I have found the http://www.economagic.com/ site to be excellent, the developer has work to do to fix up some programming errors, but I am encouraging him to fix them. Bye.
You could get all wrapped up in that fluff or just flip a chart of the Dow Jones upside down and get the same thing.
The misery index would be over 20 if the 1983 inflation formula was used. That would make the current situation the worst since WW2, and it is not over yet. Do you really want to be LONG FINANCIALS. This calculation (ie Misery Index above) says that a CONSUMER LEAD RECESSION IS DAWNING ! SKF is under $120, with huge volume, this is a screaming BUY !!!
Check out Misery index with Stocks, I submit the 1968/1974 reaction maybe the 2008 reaction. The 1980 reaction was mild, maybe they had no credit crunch then, dunno ! Stocks on a log scale.
This is the misery index with the adjustment for change in house values, and using the three inflation calculations... With the house adjustements, it would be higher. Consumer lead recession comingor hear ...BUY SKF Chart from : http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com
Consumer lead recession comingor hear ...BUY SKF Chart from : http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com This chart UPDATED with YOY% housing change. Notice current levels are just equal with 1930s, and 2008/09 have yet to peak, oooouch !