Were I trading full-time, and were this any day other than Friday, I would have been looking at just about a perfect setup to short EURAUD about 40 minutes ago as the pair was reversing south when the rate was up around 1.6503.
Saturday, August 10, 2019 / 4:00 p.m. PST I just added another facet to my forecast analysis which I'm about to apply to the evaluation I performed yesterday... EURAUD closed in the middle of the day range yesterday, but structurally, it is well positioned to form a leg southward. Nevertheless, if it continues to climb much higher (perhaps above 1.6525), the day-to-day bias will switch from bearish to bullish and the previous plan will be rendered null and void. AUDJPY is more bearish than neutral, so I will not be looking to buy the pair anytime in the near future. I am still looking to buy AUDUSD, but this will change if it falls too much. (It must climb back above 0.6795.) For the time being, I'm leaving EURUSD alone. At present it would be too difficult to try to figure out what the pair intends to do. NZDUSD triggered a SELL signal when it hit 0.6479! USDCAD is now flat out bearish, so it is no longer a BUY candidate in any way, shape or form.
The lower band of NZDUSD's projected day range has contracted. So what does this have to say about the probability of the selling the pair ending with success? Since I got in well below the trigger signal, this is not a welcome sight. Still, I'm curious to see how this unfolds.
Sunday, August 11, 2019 / 5:00 p.m. PST AUDUSD has turned bearish. CONCLUSION: This approach to trading does not make sense for me. The system I normally use is more detailed than this, so any opportunity due to mis-colored daily candlesticks is going to show up on my charts anyway, making the rather crude and less fruitful practice of checking the daily charts for such setups an unnecessary waste of time.
Since I executed this trade when the structure for it was extremely crummy, I'm satisfied with having managed to milk 14 pips worth of profit out of the act. Now I will be abandoning this "mis-colored daily candlestick" tactic for the reasons stated above.
Tuesday, August 20, 2019 / 5:00 p.m. PST Though I decided that the mis-colored daily candlestick tactic was not for me, there is something similar I wish to consider. This morning I determined I should use a one-hour configuration derived from my daily charts to enhance the use of my five-minute setup. The goal is to identify currency pairs that are virtually destined to head in a particular direction (sooner or later) due to the pronounced slope of their gravitational trend lines. And though EURAUD has pretty much been in the same spot for three or four days, its 60-minute chart suggests that it ought to eventually drop from 1.6378. Likewise, I would expect USDCHF to eventually climb from 0.9780. The first trade executed based on this new theory was to sell NZDUSD...
EURAUD has already sent out an initial blast south, providing me with roughly 20 pips profit. To be honest, 20 pips worth of profit given where I am right now is enough to satisfy me even if it were the total haul for an entire day, so I feel no need to look for more from the pair. The idea of using this strategy will be to come as close as humanly possible to avoiding any losses whatsoever, so even though NZDUSD and EURAUD worked out okay, I will still be waiting to see what happens with USDCHF.
USDCHF is almost at break even. If I can close all my positions before calling it a night, I would prefer to do so. Consequently, I moved my take-profit target so that it is now only a few pips away. EURGBP was a trade left over from yesterday that was actually in conflict with the technique I decided to start using this morning, so I moved my take-profit target hoping to at least get out at break even which fortunately came about. (No, on second glance, taking into consideration a -0.12 Swap, I actually ended up suffering a -10ȼ loss.) EURAUD pulled back, so it seemed logical to me to enter another short position (since conditions have not changed at all) and this allowed me to collect another $1.21 from the pair.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019 / 00.00 a.m. PST (Midnight) I moved my target even closer so I could go to sleep now.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019 / 8.45 a.m. PST I like this tactic because it's so simple. Yet and still, as I was looking at charts this morning, I realized I was beginning to forget my thinking when I decided to try this out, so I figured I better write down the beginnings of a protocol and add to it if and when I remember more. I ran out of room for writing that trades are executed (positions are entered) when price crosses above the actionable trend lines. And that's all there is to it! Oh yeah...except that stop losses are set just below (or above) the flattened floor (or ceiling) of the Donchian channels, and take-profit targets are set at the opposing bands of the Donchian channels. But trades should not be automatically closed at such levels. Rather, positions should only be exited after price reverses direction to cross back over the actionable trend lines as the Donchian channels begin to flatten out again (let your profits run).